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Sensex may return just 10-15% in new year...

MUMBAI: The mood on Dalal Street seems cautious at the start of the New Year after a sizzling run in the stock market in 2014. With the pace of implementing pro-market measures by the government turning out to be far slower than what investors expected and concern over a likely slowdown in foreign portfolio inflows heightening, investors are bracing for moderate returns from the stock market in 2015. 

Market participants are betting on an average 10-15% returns from stocks in the New Year after the 30% run-up in the Sensex in 2014. "I expect markets to deliver around 10-15% return in 2015 in rupee terms, which is going to be far less compared with 2014, while in dollar terms, markets may not give any absolute return as I expect the rupee to weaken to the 70 mark against the US dollar," said Shankar Sharma, vicechairman and joint managing director of First Global Group. 

The stock market slump in December has contributed in a big way in tempering returns expectations in 2015. Sensex dropped 4.5% in December, its biggest monthly decline in about two years, while many front-line stocks nosedived up to 15%. As a senior fund manager puts it, the correction has brought several investors back to reality. 

"Investors will now have to do a reality check as the euphoria of a bull market is behind us. One should not make the mistake of expecting a repeat of last year's stock performance in 2015 as we have already seen a slew of earnings downgrades with macro indicators still remaining weak. It's time to play the truth and not live in fantasy," said Tirthankar Patnaik, chief strategist and head of research, India, Mizuho Bank. 

"Investment reforms such as labour, land and power reforms may take longer and may be implemented only by progressive states if the central government is unable to pass them because of its minority position in the upper house of Parliament," said Sanjeev Prasad, senior executive director & co head - strategy at Kotak Institutional Equities. "Market returns may moderate to 15-20% given the expensive valuations on FY2016 basis after rerating of large stocks in 2014." 

Brokers said foreign fund inflows could slow if a possible signal by the US Federal Reserve on interest rate hike results in the dollar strengthening further. Foreign portfolio investments in Indian stocks in 2014 fell to a three year low at $16 billion against the two-year average of $22 billion. 


Top ten stocks to buy with strong fundamentals and fair valuations for year 2015

For 2015, we expect that the markets should definitely remain buoyant on the back of a strong potential improvement in fundamentals - in particular, recovering asset utilisations and strengthening EBIT margins - with a secondary boost from a possible re-rating in valuations.

We expect earnings growth to the tune of 25-30 per cent over the next 5 years as the Indian growth story should benefit from a release of pent-up demand. Further, with the Indian rupee expected to continue to depreciate (along with rate cuts looming ahead) - contracts expiring 1 year hence reveal 6 per cent depreciation from current spot - we expect significant outflows from debt investments (as yields should correspondingly lower) and sustained equity inflows driven by the attractive fundamentals story. 

Release of pent up demand should primarily aid the metals & mining sector and the auto sector, which also possess excellent sector fundamentals and good valuations. IT services - another fundamentally strong and relatively undervalued sector - should be another strong bet, expected to benefit from the weakening Indian rupee and a strong potential recovery in the US economy (the Fed hinted at baby increments in rates by mid-2015).


While as a house, we do not focus on individual stock specific picks, but rather on identifying low risk pockets of high mispricing, based on our ideology of value investing we present below 10 stocks over the large and mid-cap space in no particular order.

These stocks have solid fundamentals and are fairly undervalued with respect to their intrinsic values:
 

1) NMDC
2) Coal India
3) Wipro
4) Tata Motors
5) HCL Technologies
6) MOIL
7) Hindustan Zinc
8) Engineers India
9) MphasiS


10) GMDC 

The 10 commandments of successful investing

The 10 commandments of successful investing
Moses was coming down the stairs of the Bombay Stock Exchange building after a rough trading session one rainy day and look what he found peeking out of the false ceiling on the 10th floor landing, written in the hand of God...

God entrusted to Moses the noble task of protecting the small investor from the vagaries of the market and the attempts of various vested interests to waylay them on their path to safe investing. Safe investing, said God, was a mere matter of following these ten simple rules.
Commandment 1: Don't attempt to time the market
Timing the market is no guessing matter. To the little investor, timing the market is like taking a random walk. Most people only recognise the correct path after already having set foot on the wrong one. One exception to this is “bottom-fishing”, an approach to buy stocks that you want in your portfolio at prices below the prevailing levels. This entails biding your time and buying into a market downturn before the others do (the age-old philosophy of buying low, selling high). The downside of this approach being that the stock you want may never see the downside you expect.
Commandment 2: Don't try to outguess the market
Market psychology is for shrinks, not for couch potatoes like we humans. What captures the imagination of the market is transient. This means that what is “in” today is “out” tomorrow. Most people only recognise the pattern after it has become apparent to almost everyone else and is too late to act upon. For example, if investment in technology appears to be the current flavour, you are probably already too late to cash in on the trend. In this instance, you should only invest in technology as part of a long-term balanced approach.
Commandment 3: Treat investing like marriage--go for the long haul
Short-term investing could go either way. Invest for the long term. Almost all market pundits and investment studies show that stock investing should be part of a long-term strategy, lasting for five to ten, or even 20, years or longer. Beware that not every year will result in a positive return on your investment. However, over time the plus will likely overwhelm the minus by a substantial margin.
Commandment 4: Stay clear of broker's advice, hot tips and "multibaggers"
Every portfolio advisor is not Sharekhan (J) who swears by sound investment principles. Think. Wouldn't most brokers be tempted to make their living by goading their clients to constantly move in and out of positions, thus garnering commissions? This is diametrically opposite to Commandments 1, 2 and 3. For most people, stock advice is like a game--of darts! Only accept advice if the person has your financial interest in mind and is not making a living by selling your stock. Of course never buy from someone who calls on you and gives you advice. J
Commandment 5: Almost always invest in blue chips and blue chips-to-be
Do invest in companies that are considered blue chips. These include not only the BSE 100, but also the others that are slowly stepping into the big league. Invest only in established companies with a good track record. Beware that not every blue chip will rise after you buy it, and that even these otherwise stellar performers will have their good months/years and bad months/years. But over time, the fluctuations will even out and you would be left with a considerable net plus. Also invest in companies that have a good record of declaring dividends (and if you find the solitary one that increases its dividend pay-out each year...you know what to do).
Commandment 6: Prefer steady installment-like buying of stock to buying at one go
Investing should never be done in panic or be treated as an emergency. Purchasing your favourite few is best accomplished at a steady rate over time, so as to avoid the ups and downs of the market. This is called rupee cost averaging and is one of the safest approaches to investing. It works just like any other habit: you buy, regardless whether the price is up or down, until you reach the desired number of shares of that stock.
Commandment 7: Diversify, diversify and diversify
Do diversify your portfolio, both within your selected sectors and within the overall industry. For example, don't invest in only technology because it happens to be in vogue but consider the other industries as well.
Commandment 8: No shopping with borrowed money and maintain a core reserve
Never use margin money to buy stocks. You should not invest money you don't have. A simple and basic rule is to not leverage yourself to an extent that when the tide turns against you, all you are left with is nothing.

You never know when a financial emergency might arise. That's why you must keep a comfortable cash reserve in your savings account, so you do not have to tap into your long-term investments. A reserve equal to six months of salary should be just about ideal.
Commandment 9: Set realistic financial goals
Treat a 500% return with as much derision as you would a 5% return. Decide what you need the money for: To retire early, to finance your kid's college education or to fund your daughter's marriage or just to preserve and build wealth? Whatever the goal you set, make sure it is reasonable and attainable. Expecting too much will only lead to disappointment down the road. Aim for an expected return level that is realistic--not mediocre or overambitious.
Commandment 10: There are 10 more commandments
For those who thought that was the last of the ten commandments I have good news. There's more. Ensure that your portfolio size is controllable (15 stocks is about ideal) and your stocks are well researched. Checkpoints: Is the management quality above board? Does the company have a positive cash flow? Does it have the capability to compete on a global scale? Most importantly, is it shareholder friendly?

Finally, leave your emotions behind when you enter the world of investing. Follow the ten commandments. Time is on your side. Investment success won't happen overnight, so stay focused on long-term returns and avoid overreacting to short-term market swings. Remember, investment success depends on time, not timing.
Sharekhan has the best stocks under its coverage. Invest in them for the long term for healthy returns.

Financial Discipline for all: Principle 6: Never stretch beyond your limits.

Money will come and go; after all, you just have a life to live –why not live it to the fullest? Sounds perfect and positive, isn’t it? Unfortunately, if you are living your life like that, not everything is positive and perfect. You will realize the perils of reckless spending when you face a financial emergency. I have done it in my initial investing life– reckless spending – but soon realized that you cannot discount uncertainties in life. A sudden drop in my monthly cash flows turned my life into a nightmare. So, when i write my sixth principle, I have my own experiences to back it up!
The principle is not very hard to follow – never take money from your savings or borrow temporarily from your friend’s pocket to buy a little more luxury. Be it a slightly bigger house that caught your wife’s imagination or the latest electronic gadgets.
WHERE IS THE PROBLEM?
The lifestyle you want to maintain depends on three factors:
  • The circumstances in which you were born and bought up
  • The kind of friends you have
  • The place or community where you live.
Have you asked your parents about how they started their life? They din’t have a big car or latest electronic gadgets. They probably didn’t live in the big apartment or villa they’re living right now. They built everything brick by brick. It would have taken a lot of time, effort and disciplined life to get to where they are now. That’s exactly the way you should also start off. If you try to achieve all the life’s goodies in very short time, there’s every possibility that you’ll borrow a lot of money assuming that you’ve the ability to re-pay everything in 5 or 10 years and chances are that you’ll get into debt trap should there be an unexpected fall in your monthly income.
Another problem amoung youngsters is that spending habits are greatly influenced by their friends and colleagues. Bank balance doesn’t matter, the car or home doesn’t matter – what matters is the answer ‘yes’ to this question- Are you better off than your neighbor , friend , relative or colleague? If the answer is yes, you are confident, you feel happy. Or else – you stretch beyond your limits to maintain yourself the standard of living that your friend has! You will over borrow, over spend or do something to satisfy your ego. This category of people falls into the trap of personal loan providers. Personal loans are easy to get. There is less documentation and there are no restrictions on how you use the money. Since money comes in quickly with minimum documentation, you won’t mind the higher rate of interest.
Another reason for reckless spending is that these days, a lot of technologically advanced gadgets and appliances are introduced into the market that drives everyone crazy. Financial schemes are introduced by institutions which would seem like a very simple deal. These schemes are advertised in such a way as to lure customers. Such facilities tempt us to spend more. When you buy into such schemes, what you are actually doing is getting into the finance trap. I am sure 99% of people reading this would have done this in some form or other.

That’s principle 6 for you. It’s always wise to stay within your limits.
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Principle 5: Cash reserves and idle cash.




Financial Discipline for all:Principle 5: Cash reserves and idle cash.

Cash reserves are money kept aside as an emergency fund. We are discussing the need to keep cash reserves as our fifth principle because, this is one important idea which most of us neglect. When you set aside some money from your earnings to meet unexpected expenses, there are four advantages that automatically comes with it:
1. Financial safety.
2. It allows you to take advantage of a surprise financial opportunity
3. It creates a compulsory saving habit.
4. Since funds are kept in liquid cash or gold, it earns interest or appreciates in value.
We recommend to create an emergency fund that equals to 4 or 5 months of living expenses; however, you do not need to set aside this total amount in cash alone. It can be in short term fixed deposit or Gold etc..
HOW MUCH RESERVE?
That depends from person to person.
There are a number of factors that influences your decision on the quantum of emergency fund that needs to be created. Factors such as age, occupation, health condition, monthly EMIs, number of members in the family, other sources of income needs to be considered on a one to one basis.
1. AGE:
Depending upon how old you are, the emergency fund required keeps changing. As you grow older, the possibility of medical emergencies is also high. Hence, if your age is on the higher side (let’s say you’re 45 years old) you also need an emergency fund that’s higher than some one who is just turning 30.
2. OCCUPATION:
The style of occupation/business you do is another factor that influences emergency fund decisions. If you are doing a seasonal business or if your job has an uncertain future, you need a higher emergency fund. People living on commission based income would also require a high emergency fund.
3. HEALTH CONDITION:
More reserve funds may be required for a person whose health condition is questionable. The amount of insurance cover he has should also be considered while assessing his future requirement. Higher the insurance, lesser the need for reserve funds on these grounds. Again, if you have your parents or grand parents living with you, you might need to plan accordingly.
4. MONTHLY EMIs.
The volume of debt you have needs to be analysed to get an idea about how much EMIs you’ll have to pay a month. Typically, while creating reserve funds, an amount equal to 6 months EMIs should be kept aside so that in case of emergency, you don’t default in your loan payments. A clear track record of loan re-payments is absolutely necessary for your future financial needs.
5. NUMBER OF MEMBERS IN FAMILY.
If the numbers of members you need to support are more (say 7 members) naturally you need a higher reserve than what would be required if you have only say, 3 members in your family.
6. OTHER SOURCES OF INCOME
You can count on your other sources of income, if any, while creating a reserve fund. One time or casual income or credit card limits should not be considered in this group. However, you can count on the income of your spouse or other family members staying with you in case of emergency.
7. OTHER POSSIBLE EXPENSES.
You may also want to consider other expenses like possible higher education fees for your child who is about to enter college or a possible repair for your house. It all depends from person to person.
HOW TO KEEP RESERVE FUNDS?
Hundred percent of your reserve funds need not be kept in liquid cash. A portion of it can be kept in short term fixed deposits or debt funds and a certain portion in gold or easily marketable securities.
Any cash lying idle over and above your emergency fund results in a lost investment opportunity. You are not making your money work efficiently for you.
THUMB RULE
The thumb rule is – You should have enough reserves to meet all the expenses for 4 or 5 months plus some extra to meet unforeseen expenditure like medical expenses.

HOW TO SPOT IDLE FUNDS?
  • First estimate how much emergency fund you’ll require. (typically 3-6 months expenses)
  • Now see how much you have in your bank account plus cash in hand.
  • Deduct 3 or 6 months emergency fund. The balance is your idle fund.
  • This fund should be invested immediately. You can take up a systematic investment plan so that an amount gets invested automatically every month; or you can open an online trading account and invest in stocks or mutual funds at your convenience ; you can opt to open FD linked savings account so that any balance above a certain limit automatically earns interest at a higher rate and so on..
You may like these posts:
Financial Discipline for all:: Principle 1.Finding money

Financial Discipline for all :: Principle 2.Time value of money

Financial Discipline for all : Principle 3. Compounding
Financial Discipline for all:Principle 4. Interest rates

Financial Discipline for all:Principle 4. Interest rates

INTEREST
Interest, usually expressed in terms of a percentage, is the additional amount you pay for using borrowed money or the return you get when you invest it with an institution like a bank.Its also the compensation you can demand if someone delays a payment that’s due to you. If you think clearly, the two concepts we discussed earlier viz, time value of money and compounding were based on the concept of interest rates.In this post we are discussing certain practical scenarios where interest rates can baffle you. It’s discussed under two heads
1. Interest payments
2. Interest incomes.
INTEREST ON LOANS
Interest rates are always tricky.  In most of the cases, interest rates advertised by the banks are not the actual rate of interest you pay. It’s something more than that.
Trap 1.
When you apply for a loan, there are a lot of financial charges you need to consider before deciding whether to avail it or not. For example – you are offered a loan for Rs.2 lakhs and your EMI works out to say, Rs. 18000 with 2 EMI’s payable in advance. Effectively, you are getting only Rs 164,000 in hand. But since the interest rate is calculated as if the entire 2 lakhs is given to you, the rate of interest you pay is actually very high.
Is that all? No. The bank will also deduct a processing fee of 1 % of the ‘total amount’ ie. Rs 2000 for a 2 lakhs loan. So on net, you get Rs 162,000.
Trap 2.
You are offered the same loan for reducing balance interest. You feel light thinking of the fact that interest is charged only on the balance outstanding. But look closer – reducing balance can be on monthly basis, half yearly basis or on Annual basis. If it’s on annual basis – your interest is calculated on the amount outstanding at the ‘beginning’ of the year. So, you keep paying interest on a higher amount even though your loan is decreasing every month. This pushes up the effective rate of interest you pay.So always confirm whether the reducing balance is on annual basis or half yearly basis.
Trap3.
Higher loan pre-closure charges. The bank would like you to pay your EMI’s regularly. If you do that, the bank likes you so much that on the basis of that regular loan track, they will sanction a second loan if you want. But – if you try to close off your loan liability before the stipulated loan period – the bank will charge an additional amount of 3% to 4% on the outstanding principal. They don’t want their customers to be ‘Too regular’. strange isn’t it?. That’s the way bank deals with it’s customers. If you try to be too good , you’ll be fined This preclosure charge you pay effectively raises the cost of your loan.
The solution-
The best way to deal with these traps is to stop comparing the interest rates and instead, compare the EMI’s and compute the total amount going out of your pocket including processing fee and pre-closure charges. This will give you the right picture of which loan is actually right for you.
INTEREST INCOME
The principle to be applied is quite simple – The earlier you get it, the better it is.
This principle will help you to compare different offers. For example – A bank offers 8% P.a  interest on FD , payable annually. NSC also offers 8% P.a but, payable half yearly. You get another offer on FD which pays interest at 8% p.a – payable monthly. Which is better? The one you get on monthly basis, of course!. Why? Because, the bank’s effective rate is 8% , the NSC’s effective rate is 8.16% and the third option of FD gives you an effective annual interest rate of 8.30% !
How? Let’s calculate with an example –

Financial Discipline for all : Principle 3. Compounding..

When asked to name the greatest mathematical discovery, Albert Einstein, one of the most influential and best known scientist and intellectual of all time replied – “compound interest”.

Let’s try to understand why he said so with a very simple example:
  • Jerry starts saving when he turned 25 and invests Rs 50,000 every year. He earns a return of 10% every year.At the end of ten years; he has been able to accumulate Rs 8.77 lakh. After that, he dosen’t invest Rs 50,000 anymore. He leaves that investment there until he’s retires at 60. At that time,  he would have accumulated around Rs 95 lakhs .
  • Tom, had fun and lived his first few years spending on all kinds of things and did not think of investing regularly. At 35, he starts to invest Rs 50,000 regularly every year until he retires at 60. I.e. for 25 years. But, he would have managed to accumulate only Rs 54.1 lakhs which is around Rs 41 lakhs less in comparison to Jerry.
5 simple points spell out from this story:
  • Even by investing two-and-a-half times more than Jerry,Tom has managed to build a corpus which is 43% less!
  • Why? Because,Jerry’s Rs 5 lakhs was allowed to compound for a longer period of time than Tom’s.
  • As the fund grows, the impact of compounding is greater.Jerry starts at 25, accumulates 50,000 for ten years, stops at 35 and then, his 8.77 lakhs (5 lakhs + Interest) is allowed to compound for 25 years till he’s 60. Whereas Tom starts at 35 and invests Rs 50,000 for the next 25 years, accumulates 12.5 lakhs (50,000 x 25) only to get 54.1 lakhs at 60.
  • Now let’s assume that Jerry had allowed the fund to compound for only 20 years i.e.  Till he turned 55. At 10% return every year, he would have accumulated an amount of around Rs 59 lakhs. By choosing to let his investment run for 5 more years, he accumulates Rs 45 lakh more.
  • Essentially, compounding is the idea that you can make money on the money you’ve already earned.
Compounding is very powerful.As Napoleon hill has said- “make your money work hard for you, and you will not have to work so hard for it” To take advantage of it, you have to start investing as early as possible.The earlier you start, the better it gets.
Easily said ! isn’t it?
I know it generally doesn’t work as i said. Because at 25, most of you haven’t drawn a plan to invest 50,000 a year. Even if you’ve done it , somewhere down the way , you’ve missed to add to your corpus regularly year after year. And , due to some emergency that crept in, you took back some amount from the corpus and din’t let your money grow !
So , how can a regular person use it to his/her advantage? Always remember to reinvest interest or dividends received on your investments. Over a period of time, such small amounts will add up to a tidy sum.
FREQUENCY FACTOR IN COMPOUNDING
The frequency of compounding is a major factor that that influences the compounding effect. The shorter the compounding frequency, the earlier your interest is re-invested and thus you earn more interest and your money grows faster.
Here’s more examples:
  • Savings of Rs 2500/- per month (Rs.30000 Per year) with 15% return will be worth Rs. 15028707/- (1.5 Crores) after 30 years. Yes, this is not typing error. It will be worth Really 1.5 Crores.
  • Savings of Rs 2500/- per month (Rs.30000 per Year) with 15% return will be worth Rs. 30400370/- (3.04 Crore) after 35 years.
COMPARATIVE CHART.
Here is a comparative chart for you to understand.
Let’s assume that you invest Rs 10,000 annually. Your retirement age is 60. Let’s also assume that the interest rate you get is 10%.
At the age of 60 you will have -
  • 49 lakhs -if you had started investing from age 20.
  • 30 lakhs -if you had started investing from age 25.
  • 18 lakhs – if you had started investing from age 30.
  • 11 lakhs – if you had started investing from age 35.
  • Just 6 lakhs – If you start at 40!! Take note of the impact.
Oh! That’s a huge difference! Now that you realized it late, what can you do? You can start now, invest more and reach the target of 49 lakh at age 60. This would mean more hard work and budgeting for you.   Let us see how much more you would need.
To get 49 lakhs at age 60 –
  • Invest 10,000 annually – at age 20
  • Invest 16,500 annually – at age 25
  • Invest 27000 annually – at age 30
  • Invest 45,000 annually- at age 35
  • Invest 78,000 annually – at age 40!!
Generally what I find is that most of the Indians start thinking of saving and investing at the age of 30-35. The above calculation is made assuming that the interest rate you get is 10 percent. But the average interest rate of banks is less than that. I hope the picture is now clear for you. The more you delay, the more you need to invest.

Hope you have understood the concept of compounding and how it impacts your savings. That’s principle 3 for you.
You may like these posts:
Financial Discipline for all:: Principle 1.Finding money
Financial Discipline for all :: Principle 2.Time value of money
 

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