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Top ten stocks to buy with strong fundamentals and fair valuations for year 2015

For 2015, we expect that the markets should definitely remain buoyant on the back of a strong potential improvement in fundamentals - in particular, recovering asset utilisations and strengthening EBIT margins - with a secondary boost from a possible re-rating in valuations.

We expect earnings growth to the tune of 25-30 per cent over the next 5 years as the Indian growth story should benefit from a release of pent-up demand. Further, with the Indian rupee expected to continue to depreciate (along with rate cuts looming ahead) - contracts expiring 1 year hence reveal 6 per cent depreciation from current spot - we expect significant outflows from debt investments (as yields should correspondingly lower) and sustained equity inflows driven by the attractive fundamentals story. 

Release of pent up demand should primarily aid the metals & mining sector and the auto sector, which also possess excellent sector fundamentals and good valuations. IT services - another fundamentally strong and relatively undervalued sector - should be another strong bet, expected to benefit from the weakening Indian rupee and a strong potential recovery in the US economy (the Fed hinted at baby increments in rates by mid-2015).


While as a house, we do not focus on individual stock specific picks, but rather on identifying low risk pockets of high mispricing, based on our ideology of value investing we present below 10 stocks over the large and mid-cap space in no particular order.

These stocks have solid fundamentals and are fairly undervalued with respect to their intrinsic values:
 

1) NMDC
2) Coal India
3) Wipro
4) Tata Motors
5) HCL Technologies
6) MOIL
7) Hindustan Zinc
8) Engineers India
9) MphasiS


10) GMDC 

The 10 commandments of successful investing

The 10 commandments of successful investing
Moses was coming down the stairs of the Bombay Stock Exchange building after a rough trading session one rainy day and look what he found peeking out of the false ceiling on the 10th floor landing, written in the hand of God...

God entrusted to Moses the noble task of protecting the small investor from the vagaries of the market and the attempts of various vested interests to waylay them on their path to safe investing. Safe investing, said God, was a mere matter of following these ten simple rules.
Commandment 1: Don't attempt to time the market
Timing the market is no guessing matter. To the little investor, timing the market is like taking a random walk. Most people only recognise the correct path after already having set foot on the wrong one. One exception to this is “bottom-fishing”, an approach to buy stocks that you want in your portfolio at prices below the prevailing levels. This entails biding your time and buying into a market downturn before the others do (the age-old philosophy of buying low, selling high). The downside of this approach being that the stock you want may never see the downside you expect.
Commandment 2: Don't try to outguess the market
Market psychology is for shrinks, not for couch potatoes like we humans. What captures the imagination of the market is transient. This means that what is “in” today is “out” tomorrow. Most people only recognise the pattern after it has become apparent to almost everyone else and is too late to act upon. For example, if investment in technology appears to be the current flavour, you are probably already too late to cash in on the trend. In this instance, you should only invest in technology as part of a long-term balanced approach.
Commandment 3: Treat investing like marriage--go for the long haul
Short-term investing could go either way. Invest for the long term. Almost all market pundits and investment studies show that stock investing should be part of a long-term strategy, lasting for five to ten, or even 20, years or longer. Beware that not every year will result in a positive return on your investment. However, over time the plus will likely overwhelm the minus by a substantial margin.
Commandment 4: Stay clear of broker's advice, hot tips and "multibaggers"
Every portfolio advisor is not Sharekhan (J) who swears by sound investment principles. Think. Wouldn't most brokers be tempted to make their living by goading their clients to constantly move in and out of positions, thus garnering commissions? This is diametrically opposite to Commandments 1, 2 and 3. For most people, stock advice is like a game--of darts! Only accept advice if the person has your financial interest in mind and is not making a living by selling your stock. Of course never buy from someone who calls on you and gives you advice. J
Commandment 5: Almost always invest in blue chips and blue chips-to-be
Do invest in companies that are considered blue chips. These include not only the BSE 100, but also the others that are slowly stepping into the big league. Invest only in established companies with a good track record. Beware that not every blue chip will rise after you buy it, and that even these otherwise stellar performers will have their good months/years and bad months/years. But over time, the fluctuations will even out and you would be left with a considerable net plus. Also invest in companies that have a good record of declaring dividends (and if you find the solitary one that increases its dividend pay-out each year...you know what to do).
Commandment 6: Prefer steady installment-like buying of stock to buying at one go
Investing should never be done in panic or be treated as an emergency. Purchasing your favourite few is best accomplished at a steady rate over time, so as to avoid the ups and downs of the market. This is called rupee cost averaging and is one of the safest approaches to investing. It works just like any other habit: you buy, regardless whether the price is up or down, until you reach the desired number of shares of that stock.
Commandment 7: Diversify, diversify and diversify
Do diversify your portfolio, both within your selected sectors and within the overall industry. For example, don't invest in only technology because it happens to be in vogue but consider the other industries as well.
Commandment 8: No shopping with borrowed money and maintain a core reserve
Never use margin money to buy stocks. You should not invest money you don't have. A simple and basic rule is to not leverage yourself to an extent that when the tide turns against you, all you are left with is nothing.

You never know when a financial emergency might arise. That's why you must keep a comfortable cash reserve in your savings account, so you do not have to tap into your long-term investments. A reserve equal to six months of salary should be just about ideal.
Commandment 9: Set realistic financial goals
Treat a 500% return with as much derision as you would a 5% return. Decide what you need the money for: To retire early, to finance your kid's college education or to fund your daughter's marriage or just to preserve and build wealth? Whatever the goal you set, make sure it is reasonable and attainable. Expecting too much will only lead to disappointment down the road. Aim for an expected return level that is realistic--not mediocre or overambitious.
Commandment 10: There are 10 more commandments
For those who thought that was the last of the ten commandments I have good news. There's more. Ensure that your portfolio size is controllable (15 stocks is about ideal) and your stocks are well researched. Checkpoints: Is the management quality above board? Does the company have a positive cash flow? Does it have the capability to compete on a global scale? Most importantly, is it shareholder friendly?

Finally, leave your emotions behind when you enter the world of investing. Follow the ten commandments. Time is on your side. Investment success won't happen overnight, so stay focused on long-term returns and avoid overreacting to short-term market swings. Remember, investment success depends on time, not timing.
Sharekhan has the best stocks under its coverage. Invest in them for the long term for healthy returns.

Financial Discipline for all:Principle 5: Cash reserves and idle cash.

Cash reserves are money kept aside as an emergency fund. We are discussing the need to keep cash reserves as our fifth principle because, this is one important idea which most of us neglect. When you set aside some money from your earnings to meet unexpected expenses, there are four advantages that automatically comes with it:
1. Financial safety.
2. It allows you to take advantage of a surprise financial opportunity
3. It creates a compulsory saving habit.
4. Since funds are kept in liquid cash or gold, it earns interest or appreciates in value.
We recommend to create an emergency fund that equals to 4 or 5 months of living expenses; however, you do not need to set aside this total amount in cash alone. It can be in short term fixed deposit or Gold etc..
HOW MUCH RESERVE?
That depends from person to person.
There are a number of factors that influences your decision on the quantum of emergency fund that needs to be created. Factors such as age, occupation, health condition, monthly EMIs, number of members in the family, other sources of income needs to be considered on a one to one basis.
1. AGE:
Depending upon how old you are, the emergency fund required keeps changing. As you grow older, the possibility of medical emergencies is also high. Hence, if your age is on the higher side (let’s say you’re 45 years old) you also need an emergency fund that’s higher than some one who is just turning 30.
2. OCCUPATION:
The style of occupation/business you do is another factor that influences emergency fund decisions. If you are doing a seasonal business or if your job has an uncertain future, you need a higher emergency fund. People living on commission based income would also require a high emergency fund.
3. HEALTH CONDITION:
More reserve funds may be required for a person whose health condition is questionable. The amount of insurance cover he has should also be considered while assessing his future requirement. Higher the insurance, lesser the need for reserve funds on these grounds. Again, if you have your parents or grand parents living with you, you might need to plan accordingly.
4. MONTHLY EMIs.
The volume of debt you have needs to be analysed to get an idea about how much EMIs you’ll have to pay a month. Typically, while creating reserve funds, an amount equal to 6 months EMIs should be kept aside so that in case of emergency, you don’t default in your loan payments. A clear track record of loan re-payments is absolutely necessary for your future financial needs.
5. NUMBER OF MEMBERS IN FAMILY.
If the numbers of members you need to support are more (say 7 members) naturally you need a higher reserve than what would be required if you have only say, 3 members in your family.
6. OTHER SOURCES OF INCOME
You can count on your other sources of income, if any, while creating a reserve fund. One time or casual income or credit card limits should not be considered in this group. However, you can count on the income of your spouse or other family members staying with you in case of emergency.
7. OTHER POSSIBLE EXPENSES.
You may also want to consider other expenses like possible higher education fees for your child who is about to enter college or a possible repair for your house. It all depends from person to person.
HOW TO KEEP RESERVE FUNDS?
Hundred percent of your reserve funds need not be kept in liquid cash. A portion of it can be kept in short term fixed deposits or debt funds and a certain portion in gold or easily marketable securities.
Any cash lying idle over and above your emergency fund results in a lost investment opportunity. You are not making your money work efficiently for you.
THUMB RULE
The thumb rule is – You should have enough reserves to meet all the expenses for 4 or 5 months plus some extra to meet unforeseen expenditure like medical expenses.

HOW TO SPOT IDLE FUNDS?
  • First estimate how much emergency fund you’ll require. (typically 3-6 months expenses)
  • Now see how much you have in your bank account plus cash in hand.
  • Deduct 3 or 6 months emergency fund. The balance is your idle fund.
  • This fund should be invested immediately. You can take up a systematic investment plan so that an amount gets invested automatically every month; or you can open an online trading account and invest in stocks or mutual funds at your convenience ; you can opt to open FD linked savings account so that any balance above a certain limit automatically earns interest at a higher rate and so on..
You may like these posts:
Financial Discipline for all:: Principle 1.Finding money

Financial Discipline for all :: Principle 2.Time value of money

Financial Discipline for all : Principle 3. Compounding
Financial Discipline for all:Principle 4. Interest rates

Financial Discipline for all.


Millions of people fall prey to financial frauds;millions suffer from financial imbalance despite earning good money;even billioners have committed suicide due to financial problems- The root cause of all this is failure in handling their money in an informed manner. People from all walks of life face this problem of financial indiscipline.In the following articles,we detail the basics one must follow while handling their money in order to stay safe and have peace of mind. Some are concepts, while others are practical tips.




  • The story of Adolf Merckle
  • Principle 1.Finding money !
  • Principle 2.Time value of money
  • Principle 3. Compounding
  • Principle 4. Interest rates.
  • Principle 5: Cash reserves and idle cash.
  • Principle 6: Never stretch beyond your limits.
  • Principle 7. Don’t try ‘Get rich quick’ schemes.
  • Principle 8. Inflation
  • Principle 9. You are not safe with fixed deposits alone.
  • Principle 10. Have a Monthly budget
  • Principle 11. Utilize credit cards wisely.
  • Principle 12. Lending money to friends and relatives.
  • Principle 13. Signing surety for friends.
  • Principle 14: Multiple streams of income.
  • Principle 15. Do not spend recklessly
  • Principle 16. Avoid financial litigations
  • Principle 17. Pay your taxes.
  • Principle 18. Safeguard your documents.
  • Principle 19. Insurance is a must.
  • Principle 20. Know your net worth
  • Principle 21. Think of retirement when you’re young!
  • Principle 22. Diversify your investments.
  • Principle 23. Valuation is the key to right investments.
  • Principle 24. Gold – A must in your portfolio

The Importance of a Trading Plan..

Trying to win in the stock market without a trading plan is like trying to build a house without blueprints – costly mistakes are inevitable.


Why do you need a Trading Plan?
 1 – During trading hours, emotions will turn smart people into idiots. Therefore, you have to avoid having to make decisions during those hours. For every action you take during trading hours, the reason should not be greed or fear. The reason should be because it is in the plan. With a good plan, your task becomes one of patience and discipline.
2 – Consistent results require consistent actions – consistent actions can only be achieved through a detailed plan.

What should be in your trading plan?

1 – Your strategy to enter and exit trades

You have to describe the conditions that have to be met before you enter a trade. You also have to describe the conditions under which you will close a position. These conditions may include technical analysis, fundamental analysis, or a combination of both. They may also include market conditions, public sentiment, etc…

2 – Your Money management rules to keep losses small – the goal of money management is to ensure your survival by avoiding risks that could take you out of business. Your money management rules should include the following:

- Maximum amount at risk for each trade.
- Maximum amount at risk for all your opened positions.
- Maximum daily and weekly amount lost before you stop trading

3 – Your daily routine – after the market closes, before it opens, etc…

4 – Activities you carry out during the weekend.

5 – I also like to include reminders that I read every day

I will follow a trading plan to guide my trading – therefore my job will be one of patience and discipline.
- I will always keep my trading plan simple.
- I will take actions according to my trading plan, not because of greed, fear, or hope.
- I will not deceive myself when I deviate from my trading plan. Instead I will admit the error and correct it.

I will have a winning attitude.

- Take responsibility for all your actions – don’t blame the market or world events.
- Trade to trade well and for the love of trading, not to trade often and not for the money.
- Don’t be influenced by the opinions of others.
- Never think that taking money from the market is easy.
- Don’t try to guess the future – trading is a game of probabilities.
- Use your head and stay calm – don’t get excited or depressed.
- Handle trading as a serious intellectual pursuit.
- Don’t count how much money you have made or lost while you are in a trade – focus on trading well.
A trading plan will not guarantee you success in the stock market but not having one will pretty much guarantee failure.

Your Trading Cost – Break up of brokerage you pay to your broker

There is no denying the fact that earning from stock market is an art, not just speculation, forecasting and analysis. Whether you are a retail investor or a big fund, one question you should ask yourself is “what is your trading cost”?. How much part of your earning are you passing on to your broker in the form of commissions because it really affects your “profit margin”.

If you are already familiar with stock market, there is a small homework for you. Check out the contract note you have received from your stock broker. Or else, if you plan to enter into stock markets and seeking for a broker, exercise your mind a little to know the net brokerage being charged by your broker and study the various commission components. The reason is simple; the amount you pay to your broker may make difference your winning or loosing in the trade. Confused??…It is a common mistake that novice traders execute trade assuming they are earning atleast meagre profit margin, but if all the components including brokerage, taxes, and stamp duty are accounted for, the profit margin comes out to be negative. Isn’t it strange? Yes, so we are here to understand the computation of the net trading amount you pay to your broker.

RATES OF BROKERAGE

There are many brokers charging different rates of brokerage. For example, ICICI Direct charging @.75% and HDFC charging @ .5% of trading amount. However the net trading cost is computed as below:
Trading cost = Brokerage + STT + Stamp duty + other charges
So in addition to brokerage, there are below costs accounted in net amount:

1. STT – Sale transaction tax is imposed on the sale/purchase of securities by retail/institutional investors and is charged on total turnover (cost of each share * no. of shares). For delivery of shares it is charged at .125%. For intraday selling of shares, it is charged @.025%. For buying, there is no tax for intra day trades. Currently government is under consideration to remove/reduce STT because since it was introduced in 2004, the cost of transaction of trades has drastically increased. This leads to loss in business as Indian markets are becoming less competitive compared to other emerging markets.

2. Stamp duty: Stamp duty is also charged on total turnover. For delivery of shares it is charged at .01% and for intra day it is charged at .002%.

3. Other charges: it includes below component:

a. Transaction charges: For trading of shares at NSE, it is charged @ 0.0035% while for BSE, it is charged @ 0.0034%.
b. SEBI turnover charges: For equity transaction, this remains NIL but for derivative transactions, it is charged @ 0.0002% of total turnover.
c. Service Tax: Service tax is charged on all the components

So net brokerage will be calculated as below:
Net brokerage = Brokerage + STT + Stamp duty + Other charges
So next time you trade, try to find out how much earning have you shared with your broker. Happy trading!!

The Different Types of Trading Strategies

Barrel shooting and trading strategies are the two basic ways of stock market trading. Stock trading strategies are used by investors to determine the stocks to buy and the time to sell. It also helps them protect their investments. Trading strategies outperform barrel shooting by a large margin. The different types of trading strategies, which count to over a hundred, are tried and trued methods that have worked well over many years. Before exploring new strategies, beginners in the world of investments are advised to investigate some of the basic trading strategies first.

Hedging

The way of protecting an investment through the reduction of the risks that are involved in holding a particular stock is called hedging. Buying a put option that allows the selling of the stock at a particular price within a certain period of time can offset the risk of a decrease in the stock prices. There will be an increase in the value of the put option once the price of the stock falls. The most expensive hedging strategy is to buy put options against individual stocks. People with broad portfolios will do better if they buy a put option on the stock market itself because it will protect them against general market declines. Selling financial futures such as the S&P 500 futures is another way of hedging against market declines.

Dogs of the Dow

Dogs of the Dow, which gained popularity during the 90s, is a strategy that involves buying of best-value stocks in the Dow Industrial Average. These are ten stocks with the lowest P/E ratios and the highest dividend yields. This strategy presents the idea that the ten lowest companies on the Dow have the most potential for growth over the coming year. The companies listed on the Dow Index are those which offer a reliable investment performance. Pigs of the Dow is a new twist on the Dogs of the Dow. In this strategy, five of the worst stocks on the Dow are selected by looking at the price decline percentage from the previous year. Like in the Dogs of the Dow, the idea in Pigs of the Dow is that the worst five stocks are going to rebound more than the others.

Buying on Margin

The strategy of buying stocks using borrowed money, which is usually from the broker, is called buying on margin. Because they receive more stocks despite the low initial investment, the investors are given much more return by margin buying than by full payments. In the event that the stock loses its value, the losses in margin buying will also be correspondingly greater. In order to limit the losses in case of market reversal, investors should have stop-loss orders when they buy on margin. The margin amount has to be limited to about 10% of the total account value.

Dollar Cost and Value Averaging

The strategy that involves the investment of fixed dollar amounts on a regular basis is called dollar cost averaging. One example of this is the monthly buying of shares from a mutual fund. A drop in the price of the fund will cause the investors to receive more shares for their money but a raise in the price will cause the fixed amount to buy fewer shares. Value averaging, which is an alternative to dollar cost averaging, involves the decision of the investors to set a regular value that they wish to invest on. For example, the investors decide to invest $100 per month in a particular mutual fund. If the price of the fund increases, the investors also put in a higher dollar amount in that fund but if the price of the fund decreases, they spend less money. This will average out their investments to the original $100 per month. Value averaging, as a percentage return on the money invested, outperforms dollar cost averaging most of the time. When used as a part of broader trading strategies, value averaging can actually help in securing the growth of investment funds.

Fundamental Analysis Part Two – Tools

Even if the raw data provided by financial statements contain some useful information, the value of a stock will be easier to understand if a variety of tools is applied to the financial data.

Earnings per Share

The overall earning is not, in itself, a useful indicator of the worth of a company’s stocks. Low earnings that are coupled with low outstanding shares can actually be more valuable than high earnings that are coupled with high outstanding shares. The earnings per share is considered to be a much more useful information than the earnings itself. Earnings per share (EPS) is calculated by dividing the net earnings by the outstanding shares. Although it is useful for comparing two companies, the earnings per share is not the deciding factor to be used when it comes to choosing stocks.

Price to Earning Ratio

The financial tool that shows the relationship between stocks prices and company earnings is called the price to earning ratio (P/E). It is calculated by dividing the price per share by the earnings per share. The P/E shows just how much the investors are willing to pay for a particular company’s earnings. There are various ways to read P/E’s. A high P/E can indicate either the company’s overpricing or the investors’ expectation that the company will continue to grow and generate profits. A low P/E, on the other hand, can indicate either the wariness of investors toward a company or the overlooking of that company. Further analysis is needed to determine the true value of a particular stock.

Price to Sales Ratio

There are other tools that investors can use to judge the worth of a company that has no earnings. The lack of earnings doesn’t necessarily indicate that a company is a bad investment. It could mean that a company is still new and it is still starting to generate business. The price to sales ratio (P/S) is a useful tool that is used to judge the worth of new companies. P/S is calculated by dividing the market cap, which is the stock price multiplied by the outstanding shares, by the total revenues. An alternate method to this is to divide the company’s current share price by its sales per share. P/S indicates the value that the market places on the sales. A lower P/S indicates a better value.

Price to Book Ratio

Due to the potential for future revenue, the value of a growing company is always more than the book value. The book value can be determined by subtracting the liabilities from the assets. The value that the market places on the book value of the company is called the price to book ratio (P/B). It is calculated by dividing the current price per share by the book value per share. A company with a low P/B has a good value and it is often sought after by long term investors who see its potential.

Dividend Yield

There are some investors who look for stocks that can maximize the dividend income. One tool that is used to determine the percentage return that a company pays in the form of dividends is the dividend yield. The dividend yield can be calculated by dividing the annual dividend per share by the price per share of the stocks. Older and well-established companies not only pay a higher percentage but they also possess a more consistent dividend history than younger companies.


Fundamental Analysis Part One..

Fundamental analysis is one of the most useful tools that investors use when making decisions about which stocks they’re going to buy. It is a process of examining key ratios that show the current worth of a stock and the recent performance of a company.
Fundamental analysis is used to determine the amount of money a company can make and the kind of earnings an investor can expect. Future earnings may be subject to interpretation but good earning histories create confidence among investors. The stock prices may increase and the dividends may pay out.
Stock market analysts determine whether a company is meeting its expected growth by examining the earnings that are reported by the company on a regular basis. If the company doesn’t meet its expected growth, the prices of its stocks usually experience a downturn.
There are a lot of tools that are used to determine the earnings and the value of a company on the stock market. Most of these tools rely on the financial statements released by the company. Details about the value of a company which include competitive advantages and ownership ratios between the management and the outside investors can be revealed through further fundamental analyses.

Financial Statements

Public traded companies are required to publish regular financial statements. These statements are available either in printed forms or in online pages. These statements include an income investment, a balance sheet, an auditor’s report, and a cash flow statement. They also include a description of the planned activities and expected revenues for the coming year.

Auditor’s Report

One of the most important sections found in financial statements is the auditor’s report. The auditor, who is an independent Certified Public Accountant (CPA), is the one who examines the financial activities of the company in order to determine whether the financial statement is an accurate description of the earnings or not. A financial report is considered worthless without an independent auditor’s report because it might contain some misleading or inaccurate information. Although it is not a guarantee of accuracy, an auditor’s report provides credibility to the financial statement.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet, which is another important section in financial statements, serves a “snapshot” of the company’s financial condition at a single point in time. It shows the relationship between the assets such as cash, property, and equipment; the liabilities such as debt; and the equities such as retained earnings and stocks.

Income Statement

The section in financial statements that shows the information regarding the company’s net income, revenue, and earnings per share over a certain period of time is called the income statement. The top line of the income statement shows the amount of income that is generated by sales, underneath which the costs incurred in doing business are deducted. The bottom line shows the company’s net income or loss and the company’s income per share.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shares some similarities with the income statement because both sections provide a picture of a company’s performance over time. Unlike the income statement, the cash flow statement doesn’t use accounting procedures like depreciation. It simply indicates how a company handles its income and its expenses. The cash flow statement shows the incoming and outgoing cash from the sales, the investments, and the financing of a company. It is used as a good indicator of how the management runs the company and how the company handles the creditors. It also shows from where a company receives its growth capital.

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