NEW YORK: US stocks traded mostly higher on Tuesday, paring initial losses, as home prices and consumer data offset a decline in regional business activity.

Technology stocks led the gainers in the S&P 500, which closed at a record high on Monday. The benchmark index was on track to post its sixth consecutive month of gains.

Apple shares rose 2.3 per cent to $438.83 to lead the S&P 500 slightly higher. The iPhone maker came to market with what could turn out to be the largest non-bank bond sale in history, as it seeks funding to return cash to shareholders.

On the economic front, US home prices rose in February at their fastest rate in almost seven years while consumer confidence rebounded in April. However, business activity in the US Midwest unexpectedly contracted in April to its lowest level since September 2009.

Any pullback in the market has been viewed as a buying opportunity, traders and analysts said.

"The consumer confidence data seemed to mark the lows in the market," said Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities in Los Angeles.

"The continued market strength is drawing people reluctantly off the sidelines and into equities. Whether you want to buy stocks or not, the strength is forcing your hand."

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 10.12 points or 0.07 per cent, to 14,808.63. The S&P 500 gained 1.04 points or 0.07 per cent, to 1,594.65. The Nasdaq Composite added 14.8 points or 0.45 per cent, to 3,321.82. Equities continue to draw support from expectations that central banks will maintain low interest rates and other economic stimulus measures. A statement from the Federal Reserve due Wednesday is expected to keep in place the central bank's pace of bond buying to stimulate the economy.

The European Central Bank will meet on Thursday. A Reuters poll of economists showed policymakers are expected to cut interest rates.

The S&P 500 ended at an all-time high on Monday as growth-oriented stocks, including energy and technology shares, drove the index's sixth rise in the past seven sessions.

A positive finish to April would deliver a sixth straight month of gains. That would be the longest winning streak since September 2009, when the S&P 500 rallied for seven straight months. The broad market index is up 1.6 per cent for the month.

"Short interest is rising, but the market continues to move higher. If the S&P were to break over 1,600, we could see a monster short squeeze," said Jim Brown, editor of options analytics firm optioninvestor.com, in a note late on Monday.

Pfizer shares weighed on the Dow industrials after the drug maker posted lower-than-expected quarterly earnings and revenue, and trimmed its full-year profit outlook. Its stock fell 3.3 per cent to $29.42.

US retailer Best Buy retreated from its ill-fated European expansion by selling its stake in a joint venture to Carphone Warehouse Group for less than half what it paid five years ago. Best Buy shares jumped 8 per cent to $26.14.

Shares of security software maker Symantec Corp dropped 10 per cent in a span of a few seconds before trading was halted. Equity traders called the move another single-stock "flash crash," in reference to the May 2010 selloff when the Dow fall more than 600 points in a matter of minutes. Symantec was down 1.2 per cent at $24.30 at midday.

Well, at the cost of not appearing like a soothsayer, why you want to predict and take money off before the market kicks you out? Always have a point in the market where you will decide that the trend is now over and that point needs to be updated on a daily basis. Today, that point is 5850.

In case tomorrow, 5850 is taken out, you exit your longs and the story is over. In case we get up to 6000, your stop moves higher to may be towards 5920-5950. So, keep updating yourself because nobody can say from where exactly the market will turn.

You sell today and the market goes up 200 points, but there is a regret, so it is better to just keep trailing the market. It is a strong market, hence trailing your stop does make sense.

You would not like to trail in a weak sideways kind of choppy market, but in a trending market, the view has to be that we try to push the trend as far as possible.

Here are four stocks to track in volatile markets:

Motherson Sumi Ltd: The big trend identified by experts is decline in commodity prices, and investors can look at stocks which will get benefited because of softening commodities.

Motherson Sumi is one such stock which matches the criteria. Along with that, there are multiple factors which are in its favour.

Its global subsidiary SMR is turning around and the management is confident that despite a visible slowdown, demand from some of their top clients, which include names like Volkswagen, Audi and Mercedes, will remain intact.

Management is also confident that at a global level, things will improve.

"The company is confident about achieving its 40% ROCE target and exceed $5bn revenue target for FY15. Domestic business has seen strong growth of over 25 per cent despite lack of car sales growth," BofA-ML said in a report.

"Improvement in margin and ROCE of overseas subsidiaries like SMR and SMP is on track. The loss making Brazil unit is a concern and may take six months to improve," added the note.

Global investment bank Espirito Santo reiterates its 'BUY' rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 276
.
Jubilant Foodworks Ltd:

Analysts say it's a great franchise and Dominos Pizza is a household name but in the near term, it appears that the stock has hit some kind of a wall. Jubilant Foodworks is a great brand. However, what is not growing for the company is the same store sales.

Same store sales for Jubilant Foodworks are not growing and the Dunkin' Donuts franchise's operating profit margins in the near term will remain under pressure.

Most of the stores currently owned by Jubilant Foodworks are due for renewals, which means operating profit margins for FY14 will be under intense pressure.

Jubilant Foodworks has not been a great wealth creator this year. Most of the brokerages, except CLSA and Deutsche Bank, are now finding little merit in advising their clients to buy Jubilant Foodworks.

Deutsche Bank maintains a 'buy' rating on Jubilant FoodWorks and has also upped the price target from Rs 1260 earlier to Rs 1300.

The brokerage see 4 key drivers of stock price in the short term - guidance on same store sales growth, new stores addition, cash utilization and lastly guidance on losses from Dunkin Donuts business.

CESC:
Calcutta Electric Supply Corporation has plunged over 10 per cent so far in the year 2013 but analysts see silver lining in the fall and expect it to bounce back in near term.

According to analysts, electricity tariffs have been hiked in Kolkata in last quarter and the effect of that will be visible in the balance sheet of CESC in the coming quarters.

CESC is also the parent company and holds majority stake in the retail chain Spencer. At a time when retail sales were subdued, Spencer bucked the trend, whereas it's larger peers Pantaloon and Shoppers Stop reported a de-growth in their same store footfalls.

The management has indicated that if not in FY14, maybe by beginning of FY15 they may seriously consider de-merging the retail arm and the electricity arm.

The company is also mulling to take Spencer public. The management sounds confident of achieving their FY13 guidance.

Experts say valuations for CESC are mouth wateringly attractive and the stock is not trading at sub-book levels. So for a company of that pedigree and for a franchise of that quality, if the stock is available below book, it is a good time to buy.

United Phosphorus Ltd:

This is one stock which has disappointed lot of fund mangers and long term investors. However, if we look at the business dynamics, there is a case for changing fortunes for the stock.

Cash flow from Brazil will improve and the company has a very strong focus on emerging markets. However, what might pose a problem for United Phosphorous is its strong ownership pattern.

Most of local and global mutual funds have a large exposure to United Phosphorus. So if the stock appreciates to Rs 130-135 in the short term, we may see some profit booking.

If the business dynamics change, such as appreciation in currency or good monsoon, there is a strong case that it might just bounce back.
 

MUMBAI: The Nifty opened on a subdued note and registered a low of 5500.30 in the initial days of the week. With Thursday's upmove, the index witnessed a high of 5794.35 levels. Eventually, it closed near highs at 5783.10, with a robust gain of 254.55 points for the week ended April 18.


The index took support around 5500 levels and witnessed a strong short covering rally which pushed it to close above 5780 levels. Going forward, the Nifty has immediate resistance in the range of 5845 - 5870 followed by 5976 levels.

Any supply from 5870 levels can lead it to plunge up to the levels of 5700 /5660, followed by 5550.

Here is a list of top five trading strategies for the coming week:

Kotak Mahindra Bank: 'BUY' for a target of Rs 690 and with stop loss of Rs 649.40



On the daily chart of Kotak Mahindra BankBSE 1.19 %, we can see that the stock has been trading in an upward sloping contracting channel for the past few months. In the last week, the stock took support from its support trend line and witnessed a strong pullback.

With this pullback, the stock has registered an intermediate breakout on the back of heavy volumes. The stock has taken support from its long term moving average and is currently trading above its cluster of moving averages.

The stock has also closed above its upper end of Bollinger band. The momentum indicator is also rolling upward. We recommend 'Buy' now and again on dips up to Rs 658--664 with a stop loss placed below Rs 649.40 for targets of Rs 690 /710 levels.

Century Textile and Industries Ltd: 'BUY' for a target of Rs 312 and a stop loss of Rs 290.40


On the weekly chart of Century Textiles, we can see that the stock has been declining for past couple of months. In the last week, the stock has taken support at its rising trend line and formed a bullish candlestick pattern (as shown in the chart).

On the daily chart, the stock is trading above its short term of moving averages. The momentum indicator has taken support from oversold zone and rolling upward.

We recommend buying now with a stop loss placed below Rs 290.40 for targets of Rs312/324 levels.

Karnataka Bank: 'BUY' for a target of Rs 152 and a stop loss of Rs 141.80

The share price of Karnataka BankBSE 1.32 % has been trading in a declining channel for past couple of months. Last week, the stock has registered a breakout from this down sloping contracting channel.
The stock is also trading above its cluster of moving averages as well as closed upper end of Bollinger band. The momentum indicator is also rising. Going forward the stock is likely to head towards the declining gap witnessed on 21st Feb 2013.


Traders can create long position now and again on dips up to Rs 144-145 with a stop placed below Rs 141.80 levels, for targets of Rs 152/156/160 levels.

Tech Mahindra Ltd: 'SELL' for a target of Rs 920 and a stop loss of Rs 955



Tech Mahindra has been trading in a sideways range for past couple of weeks. This sideways momentum has taken the form of a head and shoulder pattern. With Thursday's down move, the stock has registered breakdown from the said pattern.

The stock is finding resistance from its near term moving average and declining. The momentum indicator is also rolling downward.

Traders can create short position now and again on rise up to Rs 955-962 with a stop placed above Rs 978.20 levels, for targets of Rs 920/900.

Tata Global Beverages Ltd: 'BUY' for a target of Rs 144 and a stop loss of Rs 137

The share price of Tata Global has been declining from the highs of Rs 181.50 for past couple of months. In this week, the stock has witnessed strong pullback which pushed it above its cluster of moving averages.



In the intraday chart, the stock has registered breakout from its inverted head and shoulder pattern on the back of heavy volumes. The stock has also closed above its cluster of moving averages as well as closed above upper end of Bollinger band.

We recommend 'buy' now and again on dips up to Rs137-138 with a stop loss placed below Rs 133.80 for the targets of Rs 144/148 levels.

NEW DELHI: The S&P BSE Sensex managed to recapture its key psychological level of 19000 in a volatile trade on Thursday and ended the week with gains of over 770 points, or 4.24 per cent.

The 50-share Nifty index also managed to recapture its key psychological level of 5700 and ended the week with gains of over 250 points or 4.6 per cent.

Markets have been in an upward trajectory throughout this week largely on hopes of monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of India, after inflation and current account deficit numbers showed some moderation.

"The Nifty had shown a strong recovery from low of 5477 level in this week and has already gained by about 4.5 per cent in this week," said Rakesh Goyal-Senior Vice President, Bonanza Portfolio Limited.

"Fall in gold prices and oil along with fair valuations seen at lower levels has led to this strong rally. However, since Nifty had been in downtrend for quite some time, profit-booking is likely near 5800 levels," he added.

Nifty has once again entered above 200-DMA level, which is a positive indicator in near term. Last quarter results for this fiscal along with global cues shall remain in focus for coming sessions.

"Investors will continue to put their money into sectors such as defensives, particularly pharma and FMCG where corporate earning visibility is positive," Nirmal Jain, Chairman, India InfolineBSE 1.08 % said in an interview with ET Now.

"In the past banks had gone through some bit of correction and the current valuations have become attractive. Private sector banks particularly will find more interest from the US side," he added.

After a series of bad news on politics, growth and interest rate outlook, India has seen some relief from falling commodity prices, especially gold and oil.

According to analysts, moderation in inflation numbers and commodity prices are likely to support RBI in easing monetary policy next month, which in turn has resulted a sharp rise in beaten down rate sensitive stocks.

"The downtrend in commodities is clearly good for the economy and eases the tail risks on the twin deficit to some extent," BofA-ML said in a note. "We continue to have a mix of rate sensitives like autos, banks and defensives stocks such as pharma in our model portfolio," the note added.

The market has a positive co-relation with crude as well as the CRB index reflecting the impact of global risk appetite on India, say analysts.

"In periods of a sharp fall in commodity prices, markets have on an average given a positive return of 4 per cent over 3 months with a 2 months lag," added the BofA-ML note.

BofA-ML is factoring a rate cut of 100 bps this fiscal, while Kotak expects 25 bps repo rate cut on May 3 and another 50 bps repo rate cut in two installments by end-CY2013.

Five stocks that touched 52-week highs

Sun Pharma: The stock has been in an upswing for the entire week and has gained nearly 5 per cent. The stock touched its 52-week high of Rs 925 on Thursday. However, towards the end the stock closed 0.04 per cent lower at Rs 916.05.

Lupin Ltd: The stock touched its 52-week high of Rs 685.70. However, towards the end of the week the stock pared most of its gains and closed 0.3 per cent lower at Rs 670.80.

ITC: Defensives have been the flavour of the week for markets, with ITC hitting fresh record highs on a regular basis. ITC surged over 1 per cent to hit its 52-week high of Rs 316.35. It closed 0.7 per cent higher at Rs 315.30.

Alembic Pharma: Pharma stocks have been on a roll this week. The stock has managed to gain nearly 10 per cent so far. The stock rose over 1 per cent to hit its 52-week high of Rs 120. However, it pared most of its gains and closed 0.4 per cent lower at Rs 117.90.

IndusInd Bank: The private sector bank surged over 8 per cent to hit its 52-week high of Rs 455.70, after it posted 37.6 per cent jump in net profit at Rs 307.40 crore for its fourth quarter ended March 31, 2013.

MUMBAI: Once accumulated as wealth by families to tide over rough times, gold has been reduced to a trading commodity. In the last few days, prices have plunged to register its biggest loss in more than three decades.

Gold prices have declined nearly 20 per cent while silver is down 23 per cent in 2013. International insiders report that four major fund houses shorted the commodity, which led to sharp declines on Friday, only to be followed up in Asia. The selling soon got out of control as margins and stoploss triggers came into play.

The gold prices have now officially entered the bear market with more than 20 per cent decline since its record highs above $1,900 in 2011 end.

Indian gold prices have declined less as the fall is cushioned by weakness in the Indian rupee. But here too, the prices have come off the record highs of nearly Rs 33,000 in 2011 to Rs 25,500 per 10 gms today. Gold prices in India hit a 19-month low while silver was at 26-month low and trading below Rs 44,000 per Kg.

The decline in gold led to Indian jewellery and bullion traders lowering shutters due to sharp decline in prices as they incur losses on holding stocks. The sellers are awaiting stability in prices before they quote prices.

In India, wedding season and Akshay Tritiya on May 13 are major buying events, which are expected to lend support to falling prices. Gold prices have seen some rebound from Boston bombings and war rhetoric from North Korea.

The forecast for gold is a difficult one to make right now. Most market analysts and participants feel that 2013 now will go down as a corrective year for precious metals and consolidate for a couple of years with modest gains.

The safe haven buying into the metal has been weak on inflation concerns and hopes of pick-up of growth in the US. While the economic growth data has not been consistent, but it has been getting better, leading to money flowing in equities. Another factor that led to onslaught on commodities was the lower than expected China growth data.

There are reports that Cyprus may be selling 12.5 tonnes of gold. Though the quantity is less than a weekly consumption in India, there is a fear that other EU countries with higher gold reserves could come into the market for sales.

There are also reports of Merril Lynch selling 4 million ounces on Comex which collectively led to decline in prices. To add to it, there has been a bearish gold report from Goldman Sachs that pushed buyers on sidelines. An opportunity selling that turned into panic selling and is now termed as Flash Crash.

The trading margins have increased across at Comex, Shanghai and Indian MCX as well and trading volumes have hit record highs on India's MCX and COMEX in US.

It augurs well with the Indian government which has been trying to discourage gold buying due to its impact on the current account deficit. India, China and much of Asia continue to be big buyers of gold.

NEW DELHI: Investors can expect an annualised return of over 15 per cent from the stock market in the long term from the current valuations -- earning them a premium of 7-7.5 per cent over the returns from the relatively risk-free government bonds, says a study.

"Current Sensex market capitalisations imply a long-term return expectation of over 15 per cent," according to the study conducted by global consultancy major PwC about Indian markets.

PwC said that the projected long-term return of 15.2 per cent for the 30-share index Sensex is based on the current market capitalisations, free cash flows and the expected growth rates.

This would imply an Equity Risk Premium (ERP) -- the difference between the returns from higher-risk equity market and those from the relatively risk-free government bonds -- of 7.2 per cent at the current level, given a yield of 8.05 per cent on 10-year government securities December 31, 2012.

"The study concludes that considering the daily fluctuations in equity market valuations as well as government security yields, the current ERP can be considered to be in the 7 -7.5 per cent," PwC said, adding that the equity risk premiums are dynamic and subject to constant change.

ERP is the excess return that an investor expects as compensation for bearing the risk of investing in the equity markets, instead of investing in a risk free asset.

While there are no securities that are 100 per cent risk free, the yield on the 10-year rupee denominated government securities can be considered as a suitable proxy for a risk free rate, the study said.

Den Networks LtdBSE 1.16 % is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 218 and a stop loss of Rs 203

Lupin LtdBSE 2.35 % is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 665 and a stop loss of Rs 639

Biocon LtdBSE -0.83 % is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 302 and a stop loss of Rs 288

Cipla LtdBSE 0.68 % is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 420 and a stop loss of Rs 399

Aurobindo Pharma LtdBSE 4.94 % is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 178 and a stop loss of Rs 163

Maruti Suzuki LtdBSE -0.63 % is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 1475 and a stop loss of Rs 1410

Biocon Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 311 and a stop loss of Rs 288

Divi's Laboratories LtdBSE -0.61 % is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 1075 and a stop loss of Rs 1021

PTC India LtdBSE -2.31 % is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 55 and a stop loss of Rs 60.10

JSW SteelBSE 1.80 % Ltd is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 625 and a stop loss of Rs 666

Biocon Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 306 and a stop loss of Rs 288

Aurobindo Pharma Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 178 and a stop loss of Rs 163

IndusInd BankBSE -0.84 % is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 415 and a stop loss of Rs 394

Dish TVBSE -3.64 % Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 77 and a stop loss of Rs 69

RILBSE 0.50 % Ltd is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 745 and a stop loss of Rs 770

The Indian markets may open on a positive note tracking positive Asian cues. SGX Nifty is also trading 26.00 points higher.
Headlines for the day

• BHEL's Tiruhcy complex to diversify into defence.
• ONGC inks MoU with KK Birla Group company for fertiliser unit.
• RIL sniffs gas in first exploration well in 5 yrs.
  
  Daily trend of FII/MF investment in equities:
  The FIIs have been the net sellers Indian stocks to the tune of Rs104.20 crore on April 08, 2013. The domestic investors sold Indian shares worth a net of Rs37.20 crore on April 08, 2013. The data is as per the SEBI website.
  
  

NEW DELHI: The S&P BSE Sensex was trading in a narrow range with a positive bias on Tuesday, led by gains in realty, metals, banks and capital goods sectors on the back of supportive cues from global peers.

According to analysts, corporate earnings for quarter ended March and global economic situation are likely to decide the course of market in the near term.

At 10:20 a.m.; the 30-share index was at 18,457.08, up 20.30 points or 0.1 per cent. It touched a high of 18,521.73 and a low of 18,456.65 in trade today.

The Nifty was at 5,564.40, up 21.45 points or 0.4 per cent. It touched a high of 5,580.60 and a low of 5,563.40 in trade today.

"The Nifty is expected to head lower till 5500. In this period the key support will be at around 5500 and resistance will be at 5612," says Somil Mehta, Senior Tech Analyst (Equity) at Sharekhan.

"The Nifty has again faced resistance around the 20-daily moving average (DMA) and also broken the previous swing low on the weekly chart which indicates weakness in the short term," he added.

Mehta is of the view that for the Nifty the short-term bias would remain negative for a target of 5450 with reversal around 5756. The medium-term outlook would remain negative.

Here is a list of sixteen stocks that are in action in morning trade today:

Telecom stocks will be in focus, after the Supreme Court allowed the telecom companies to continue 3G pacts until next hearing on April 11.

At 10:20 am, Bharti AirtelBSE -1.87 % was trading 2.1 per cent lower at Rs 275.20. Idea Cellular BSE -0.98 % was trading 1.3 per cent lower at Rs 105.60.

Wipro LtdBSE -10.75 % plunged over 11 per cent in early trade on Tuesday, after the IT major hived off its non-IT business into an unlisted entity to comply with Sebi's minimum public shareholding norm.

At 10:20 am, Wipro was trading 9.7 per cent lower at Rs 405.25.

TVS Motor Company LtdBSE -9.91 %, after the Chennai-based two-wheeler major entered into a long term co-operation with BMW Motorrad to develop and produce new series of sub-500cc motorcycles.

At 10:20 am, TVS Motor was trading 8.2 per cent lower at Rs 36.60.

IL&FS Transportation Ltd, after the infrastructure company said it had won a Rs 1,665 crore project from NHAI for widening of highways stretches in Jharkhand and West Bengal under the flagship road building programme NHDP.

At 10:20 am, the stock was trading flat at Rs 185.25.

Adani Power, Tata Power, Essar Power and JSW Energy will be in focus after the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) accused a number of prominent companies in the power and cement sectors of using a loophole in the law to dodge import duty amounting to about Rs 2,500 crore on coal imports.

The agency has questioned officials of Adani Power, Tata Power, Essar Power and JSW EnergyBSE 1.96 % and other companies on coal imports worth about Rs 28,000 crore, ET reported.

At 10:20 am, Adani PowerBSE 4.19 % was trading 4.2 per cent higher at Rs 48.50, Tata PowerBSE 0.21 % was trading flat and JSW Energy rose 1.6 per cent higher at Rs 56.90.

Reliance Industries Ltd, after the oil & gas major stopped gas supplies to power plants after its KG-D6 output hit an all-time low, prompting Power Minister Jyotiraditya ScindiaBSE -4.96 % to press for convening an urgent meeting of a ministerial panel to rework allocations

he key Indian indices ended in red for third session on continuous selling pressure led by weak global and domestic environment. The BSE Sensex slipped 59 points and the Nifty closed 22 points lower in trade today.

 Major headlines

• Bank credit to industry up 14.7% in February 2013
• Diageo refuses to lift United Spirits offer price
• Maruti Suzuki rallies on weaker yen currency
• Sugar stocks jump as CCEA OKs partial decontrol

 Indian indices
The key benchmarks closed in the red zone as the equities traded on a subdued note led by selling pressure across the board. The Indian markets witnessed another weak trading session amid volatility in FMCG, CD, CG, Power and Bankex shares. The BSE Sensex fell for a third consecutive session on Friday as concerns that foreign investors would exit some of their holdings due to domestic and global uncertainties continued to hit blue chips such as ITC and ICICI Bank. The broader markets ended on mixed note. At the closing bell, the BSE Midcap index rose 0.02%, while the BSE Smallcap index was down by 0.15% leading to strong market breadth. The BSE Sensex fell 0.32% while Nifty ended 0.39% lower.

Movement of the Indian indices for the day

Indian stock markets extended previous session's losses leading to another weak session with negativity hovering all over the D Street today. Indices started trading in the red zone and remained listless for major part of the day. Equities did enter the green territory to  trade positive for a while raising investor's hope but could not sustain gains for long and slipped back to the negative zone. 

Following are the stocks/sectors which were in news today: Shares of sugar manufacturers rallied up to 20% in opening deals after the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) approved a proposal to abolish the levy-sugar mechanism, under which private millers have to sell a specified quantity of the sweetener to the government at concessional rates. Bajaj Hindustan, Shree Renuka Sugars, Balarampur Chini Mills, Mawana Sugars, Oudh Sugars and Dhampur Sugar Mills traded 10-20% higher in trade today.  Maruti Suzuki India rose 7.23%, on hopes that a weaker yen currency would improve margins by reducing the costs of importing auto parts from Japan after the Bank of Japan unleashed unprecedented monetary expansion.  United Spirits fell 3.75% after UK drinks group Diageo Plc opted not to lift its offer price of Rs1,440 as it looks to raise its stake in the company.

Market sentiment The market breadth stood in favor of advances. Of the 2866 stocks traded on the BSE, 1422 (49.62%) rose, 1306 (45.57%) fell and 138 (4.82%) stocks remained unchanged.

Sectoral & stock screening
Among the 13 sectoral indices, eight sectors closed in the red zone while remaining five sectors closed in the green zone. Top Gainers- BSE Oil&Gas up by 1.65%, BSE Auto rose by 0.55%, BSE Metal surged 0.31%. Top Losers: BSE FMCG was down by 1.74%, BSE CD fell by 0.78% and BSE CG declined by 0.72%

Among 'A' group stocks, top three gainers were- Indraprastha Gas rose by 11.45%, Maruti Suzuki was up by 7.23% and Motherson Sumi surged by 4.72%. Top three losers were- NMDC declined by 4.48%, Exide Industries was down by 3.84% and United Spirits fell by 3.75%.  

Global signals
Asian shares hit a three-month low on Friday as concerns over bird flu in China and escalating tensions in the Korean peninsula unsettled investors as they counted down to potentially pivotal U.S. payrolls data out later in the session.

European shares hit a one-month low on Friday as investors braced for potentially weaker-than-forecast U.S. payrolls data due later, while many of Europe's sovereign bonds jumped on talk of Japanese demand.

US stock index futures pointed towards a lower opening at the Wall Street on Friday.  

Major headlines

• India's HSBC Services PMI at 51.4 in March
• Welspun Corp zooms on stake buy
• Ajanta Pharma at record high, stk up 13%
  Indian indices
  The Indian markets closed in the red zone as the equities traded on a subdued note led by selling pressure across the board, weak global sentiments, fall in rupee and poor HSBC Service PMI numbers for the month of March. Benchmark share indices witnessed weak trading session amid volatility in auto shares and index heavyweights like RIL and L&T which dragged markets lower. The broader markets too ended in red. At the closing bell, the BSE Midcap index slipped 0.94%, while the BSE Smallcap index was down by 0.54% leading to weak market breadth. 
  Movement of the Indian indices for the day
•  
  D Street witnessed a disappointed trading session as markets reversed gains accumulated in a four day rally and posted the biggest fall in last two weeks. Key benchmark indices opened in red owing to unsupportive global cues. Equities did try to erase early losses during early noon trades but remained in red terrain owing to profit booking in majority of the sectors.
  
  Following are the stocks/sectors which were in news today:
  
• Adani Power jumped 8.79% after a newspaper reported that regulators would allow the power utility company to raise tariffs for electricity provided from its plant in Mundra in the state of Gujarat.
  
• Welspun Corp gained 3.13% after Nippon Investment and Finance Co raises stake in the company to nearly 2.1% from 1.55% earlier through open market transactions.
  
• SRF rose 1.45% after the company said it has commissioned and capitalised a multipurpose chemical plant at Dahej in Gujarat on February 28, 2013.
  
• MOIL jumped 2.72% after the company said it had hiked prices by 9% across its product basket for the April-June 2013 quarter.
  
• Ajanta Pharma jumped 19%, to record new high on NSE; on back of heavy volumes after the company said its promoter along with foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have raised their stake in the company during March quarter. The stock closes 13.61% higher in trade today
  Sectoral & stock screening
  Among the 13 sectoral indices, eleven sectors closed in the red zone while remaining two sectors closed in the green zone. Top Gainers- BSE HC up by 0.17% and BSE Power rose by 0.06%. Top Losers: BSE Realty was down by 2.68%, BSE CG fell by 2.29% and BSE Auto declined by 2.23
  
  lobal signals
  Asian shares ended mixed on Wednesday (April 03, 2013), cautiously marking time before key US jobs data and news from central bank policy meetings in Japan and Europe later in the week.
  
  European shares and the euro eased while German bonds were flat on Wednesday as investors awaited this week's policy decisions by the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank followed by U.S. employment data.
  

Auto:

Axis CapitalBSE -0.19 % expects demand to recover from FY14 driven by increasing money supply in the system, falling interest rates, and pre-election consumption stimulus. However, we lower our FY14/ FY15 industry volume estimates to factor in higher fuel pass through and inflationary pressures.

Lower than expected economic recovery can impact volumes and valuation multiples.

Banks:

Banks with retail focus (mainly private) would be major beneficiaries of pick up in consumption-related demand. We prefer HDFC BankBSE -0.03 %, ICICI BankBSE 0.62 % and LIC HousingBSE 0.67 % in the space.

Key triggers will be policy rate cuts and signs of revival in capex demand. Increase in FDI in insurance will unlock value mainly for ICICI Bank, HDFC and SBIBSE 0.86 %.

Key developments expected: New bank licenses to bring new business models (eg. Yes BankBSE 0.70 % and Kotak created niche models which suited their product offerings) and improve competitive landscape.

Cement:

Cement demand has been weak since Nov '12 and is unlikely to recover over next six months. FY13 demand growth is expected to be 2 per cent. We have lowered our CY13/CY14 EPS estimates for ACCBSE -0.19 % and Ambuja by 10-18% to factor in (a) cost pressures in coal and freight and (b) subdued cement prices in the near term.

Demand growth is expected to recover to 6 per cent in FY14 and 8 per cent in FY15 led by pre-election spending and expected recovery in capex. Slow pace of fresh capacity additions to lead to improved capacity utilizations.

Steep increase in coal and logistics costs, thus limiting industry's ability to pass on cost pressures are some of the key risk factors for the sector.

Engineering:

Our channel checks suggest recovery from FY14 driven by capex in Railways (tariff hike+ DFC+ Metro), Oil & Gas (largely RILBSE 0.58 % & ONGCBSE -1.08 %), and Power Distribution (SEB debt restructuring). Power (Generation & Transmission), Metals and Roads will remain weak. We expect L&T and ThermaxBSE -0.49 % to be the key beneficiary of this capex.

We expect execution growth to pick-up in FY14 driven by government push to kick start the investment cycle by forcing cash rich PSUs do capex (or pay dividend) in the pre-election year. We expect revenue growth of 12 per cent for L&T and 22 per cent for Thermax in FY14.

FMCG:

Squeeze in disposable income and weak sentiments impacted off-take in select discretionary categories. Revenue growth for 9MFY13 was at 16 per cent YoY (vs. 19.5 per cent in FY12).

We expect pre-poll spending, increase in planned expenditure by government, and moderation in inflation levels to drive consumption demand. Expect revenue growth of 17 per cent in FY14.

Rupee depreciation will be a mixed bagger. It will negatively impact companies with higher imported raw materials content such as Asian PaintsBSE 0.66 % and HULBSE 1.17 %. No major P&L impact on companies with sizable US$ denominated debt (Dabur, GCPL, NestleBSE 0.40 % and Marico) is expected as they follow AS11. Translation gains on exports and international business will have positive impact on reported earnings (not cash flow) of GCPL, DaburBSE 3.36 % and MaricoBSE 0.78 %.

Pricing power may weaken if demand remains sluggish, which could impact operating margin in FY14.

Infrastructure:

While ports exhibited strong volume growth, airport traffic witnessed marginal de-growth. Roads lagged on account of low NHAI awards and players exiting unviable projects, citing delays in approvals.

We expect ports with spare capacity to continue to see strong growth, while a significant improvement in NHAI awards to result in more viable project wins.

Technology:

Key factors are US recovery, concerns on growth from Europe/ BFSI vertical are now abating, deal pipeline is better YoY, better prospects from sizeable renewal market is expected (~USD 220 bn over CY13-15).

Pricing is expected to remain stable as commoditization of the traditional ADM segment (55-60 per cent of revenue) will largely be offset by likely uptick in discretionary spend and new spend areas - cloud, mobility, data analytics etc.

Margins are seen improving by 30-60 bps on higher offshore penetration in Europe and rupee depreciation. We expect part of gains to be channelized towards client mining, non-linear initiatives, S&M investments, expansion at onsite locations etc. However higher depreciation and tax due to onsite investments and lower growth in interest income will lead to lower growth in PAT versus topline.

Metals:

Though we expect a gradual demand recovery in developed countries and China, overcapacity in China will keep metal prices subdued. However, there is limited downside as CMP of non-ferrous metals is at/ below marginal cost of production.

We lower our non-ferrous metal price estimates for FY14 and FY15 by 5-9 per cent. However, domestic metal companies to benefit significantly from expected rupee depreciation. We have raised our FY15 EPS estimates by 10-20 per cent and target prices by ~10-15 per cent.

Further disruption in mining activity is seen as a key risk factor for the sector.

Oil & Gas:

Domestic gas price hike (as per Rangarajan committee's recommendation) would be favorable for RIL, ONGCBSE -1.08 % and OIL. We expect gas price to be hiked to US$ 6/mnbtu (vs. Street expectations of US$ 8/mnbtu) due to likely opposition from fertilizer/ power ministry ahead of elections. Approvals for E&P plans, which have been delayed for long, will improve production outlook for RILBSE 0.58 % and CairnBSE 5.02 %.

Pharmaceuticals:

US is still an attractive market for Indian pharma players. Medium term outlook for the sector: 13-14 per cent p.a. growth; implementation of proposed pricing policy will impact growth, but only in the short-term.



Power:

State governments of three SEBs (TN, Rajasthan, and UP) have approved debt restructuring scheme. These SEBs account for 70 per cent of all-India losses. This will enable them to absorb higher power prices and lead to improvement in PLFs and receivables for gencos.

Coal price pooling mechanism has received approval from the Cabinet. An inter-ministerial group has been set up to sort out issues raised by some states. Success of this scheme is crucial to viability of private gencos dependent on CILBSE -1.25 % linkage and have signed fixed price PPAs.

Merchant prices now showing regional divergence: In 9MFY13, merchant tariffs showed divergent trend with realizations significantly higher in South India at over Rs 5/Kwh vs. East and North India at Rs 3- 3.5/Kwh due to transmission bottlenecks. We expect merchant prices at Rs 3.5-5/kWh in FY14 despite pre-election spike in demand, as banks are unwilling to fund SEBs any further and increasing consumer-level prices will be a challenge

Realty:

While MMR and NCR saw a pick up in volumes towards the end of CY12 (regulatory de-bottlenecking), Bangalore continued to see strong volumes throughout CY12 on account of project launches at regular intervals.

RBI is expected to cut interest rates by 100 bps in FY14 which shall benefit all real estate developers. Possible passage of the Land Acquisition Bill will re-rate land prices, benefiting large land owners ( DLFBSE 7.91 %, JP Infratech, Sobha and Puravankara).

De-bottlenecking of regulatory process shall result in a flurry of new launches which will help revive volumes across micro markets.

Several developers have built up significant quantum of unbooked revenue from projects which are expected to cross revenue recognition threshold in FY14 and thus augment revenue and profitability significantly ( Prestige EstatesBSE 0.49 %, Sunteck RealtyBSE 1.61 %, Oberoi Realty).

Telecom:

Industry consolidation and withdrawal of promotional offers (since August 2012) is to improve RPM. We expect 3.5 per cent/ 3 per cent RPM growth in FY14/ FY15 respectively (50 per cent of our inflation forecast).

Old operators are to benefit as minutes migrate from new operators (few have exited while some like Telewings, Sistema are scaling down operations). Expect old operators to deliver total minutes growth of 6-8 per cent in FY14.

Consecutive failure of auctions (Nov-12 and Mar-13) and increased spectrum supply (Supreme Court directions) will result in lower spectrum prices. Hence, regulatory charges will be lower.