Share Market Terms

Media plays an important role in helping political parties interact with voters and most of the parties are now using the print media, television, radio and other social networks like Facebook, Twitter and WhatsApp to convey their messages to their prospective voters.
It is true that this would translate into huge revenue growth for the media industry at large. Also, it is expected that the formation of a stable government at the Centre post-election would result in a series of reforms to boost the economy and this would further enhance the revenue growth prospects of the industry. 
However, the sluggish economic growth and a decrease in consumer spending have strained advertisers, leading them to cut promotional budgets. This has adversely affected the media industry. 
As the election is around the corner, media stocks have become attractive to investors and some of the media stocks have witnessed smart gains since the Election Commission (EC) announced the schedule for the general election on March 5, 2014.
Also, the fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are raising their advertising expenditure, which is expected to further boost the performance of the media companies.
Almost 75 per cent of television advertising is concentrated over just three categories -- FMCG, telecom and auto -- while FMCG continues to dominate television advertising. 

IDFC and L&T Finance Holdings extended gains to 6 percent and 4.6 percent, respectively on hopes of banking license. 
The decision of whether to issue banking license or not during elections period is in hands of Election Commission and not the government. 
Election Commissioner VS Sampath on Tuesday said he has not taken a final call on the banking license issue. "
We will take up this issue on Monday," he added. Election Commission has raised legal ethical issues on banking licenses matter. 
12:20pm Talwalkars in focus Shares of Talwalkars Better Value Fitness rose 11 percent as buzz of stake sale gathered steam. According to media reports UK's health and fitness group David Lloyd is looking to buy 20 percent stake in the Indian health and fitness company. "The management of David Lloyd is in talks to pick up an equity stake in Talwalkars. This will help both companies to expand their current relationship," the report quoted an investment banker. 
12:10pm FII View Credit Suisse is bullish on India and considers elections to be a turning point for the country. Speaking exclusively to CNBC-TV18 on the sidelines of the Credit Suisse Asia Conference in Hong Kong, Sakthi Siva, Asia Strategist, Credit Suisse said that atleast 5-10 percent upside in the Indian market is possible from current levels in the near-term. Siva is quite confident that though India’s growth last year was the lowest in the past 10 years, but with politics, potential change, there could be a turning point for the Indian market and the economy. 
12:00pm The market extended an upmove in noon trade with the Sensex rising over 100 points supported by banks, capital goods and auto stocks. The Sensex rose 107.58 points to 22202.88 and the Nifty climbed 38.45 points to 6639.85. About 1468 shares have advanced, 869 shares declined, and 141 shares are unchanged. Top lender State Bank of India jumped 3.5 percent after Goldman Sachs has upgraded the PSU bank to buy from neutral rating and revised target price to Rs 2,080 from Rs 1,440 apiece. 
PNB and Bank of Baroda gained 2.5-3 percent while rivals HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank advanced 0.7 percent each. Axis Bank rallied 2 percent. Brokerage house Morgan Stanley added Axis Bank to its Asia ex-Japan model portfolio. The firm is positive on the stock given company's reducing risks in books. 
Telecom operator Bharti Airtel surged 3 percent followed by Hindustan Unilever, M&M, Hero Motocorp, BHEL and NTPC with 1-2 percent. However, state-run oil & gas major Oil and Natural Gas Corporation's stock (ONGC) is quoting ex- dividend today. It fell nearly a percent. The board of directors on March 24 have approved second interim dividend of Rs 4.25 per equity share of Rs 5 each for the financial year 2013-14.  
 Drug majors Sun Pharma and Dr Reddy's Labs declined more than 1 percent. Dr Reddy's Labs has launched Amlodipine Besylate (to treat high blood pressure) and Atorvastatin calcium tablets in US market.

Today the global scenario looks favourable, which may result in positive opening of the Indian markets. SGX Nifty is also trading 31.00 points higher.
Global Market
Asian shares raced to two-week highs on Wednesday, with investor confidence getting a much needed boost from upbeat U.S. data and lingering hopes China may take steps to stimulate its sagging economy.
US stocks Tuesday finished a choppy trading session higher, boosted by stronger-than-expected consumer confidence data. The main indexes recorded small gains after two days of losses.
European shares rebounded on Tuesday, anticipating of stimulus measures from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Chinese central bank to help their economies fight off any slowdown.
Levels to watch out:
Supports @ 6570 - 6540 - 6510
Resistance @ 6600 - 6650 - 6680

10:30am Oberoi Realty jumps over 10%
 Oberoi Realty bought Tata Steel’s defunct manufacturing plant in Borivali, a western suburb in Mumbai. Oberoi Realty jumped 10 percent while Tata Steel rose 2 percent after the real estate developer announced buying the 25-acre land for Rs 1155 crore through e-auction
"The Committee of Independent Directors appointed for the oversight and governance of the sale process by the Tata Steel Board declared Oberoi Realty Limited as the highest bidder of the auction on the basis of their final bid of Rs 1,155 crore, after several rounds of bidding," Tata Steel said in a statement

The biggest near-term catalyst for the Indian market is the upcoming general election and the current rally is seen as the one fuelled by hope of a stable government. Gautam Chhaochharia, head of India research of UBS Securities sees the Nifty touching 6,900 on favourable election outcome.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18, he said, sector rotation will take front seat and this up move will be lead by cyclicals largely banks, which have a considerable weightage in the index. Other sectors like industrials and power would also perform well.
Traders who are looking to play recovery in the capex cycle theme can buy infrastructure stocks, but from six months – two years perspective, one should be cautious because on the ground revival in the sector will take a longer time.  L&T and  BHEL are his top picks from the capital goods space. He likes  Voltas  from the midcaps.
 UBS prefers sticking to private sector lenders and is underweight on public sector banks, however, those interested in investing in this space can consider PNB , which looks good from a valuation perspective, he said.
He is overweight on the IT sector from a strategy perspective and expects recovery in US and Europe to aid the sector. Giants  TCS and  Infosys are his top bets. However, he cautioned that sector rotation can drag IT services. Recent rupee appreciation and hopes of economic recovery has led investors to take money from this safe heaven sector to cyclicals.
Meanwhile, he expects the gas price hike to eventually go through. He is positive on  ONGC and RIL .  From the media space, he is positive on Sun TV , Dish TV and Hathway .
Continuing his bullish tone, he added that correction steps taken by previous government have given confidence in the Indian economy. He feels that bulidimng blocks for economic growth are in place. The broking firm is constructive on Indian market from a two-three year perspective

NEW DELHI: Indian markets are expected to trade higher on Saturday in absence of any major global cues. The key support for the index is around 6,430 levels.
"The Nifty is expected to trend up till 6575 in the next couple of days. In this period the key support will be at 6430 and resistance will be at 6575," said Somil Mehta, Senior Tech Analyst (Equity) at Sharekhan
"The Nifty has been forming higher tops and higher bottoms; it has also closed above the previous swing's high which is a positive sign for the market," he added.
Mehta is of the view that the short-term bias remains positive for a target of 6600 with reversal at 6430. The medium-term outlook remains positive as the index has started forming higher tops and higher bottoms on the weekly charts

Here is a list of ten stocks which are likely to be in focus in trade Today .. 

EW DELHI: All eyes are set on the coming general elections; and ahead of the watershed event the Indian markets are trading near their all-time highs, getting support from strong inflows from foreign institutional investors who are almost certain of a Narendra Modi-led NDA government after the general elections.
The basis of this 'certainty' is thanks to the opinion polls which are overwhelmingly predicting a BJP-led government at the Centre.
In this scenario, what should investors do ahead of the main event? Which stocks to buy and which sectors to choose from?
According to analysts, investors should focus on cyclical, banks and infrastructure, and probably shed weight on defensives such as IT and pharma.
"... it looks like that there is going to be a decisive government post May 16 and if that is your bet it makes sense to approach this market with an 'in the money' strategy," said Nilesh Shah, MD & CEO, Envision Capital.
"Investors may want to leave some ammunition for areas like technology, pharmaceuticals and dollar sensitives, where a correction has started," he said.
Shah is of the view that the sectors (IT & pharma) might get weaker before the guidance season; but barring that the rest of the pack, by and large, looks reasonably stable.

Unlike a mean-reversal rally where investors jump on to stocks that fell the most in the prior period, the recent rally has focused on sectors benefiting from a revival in large-scale infrastructure investment.

"With the sectors that had outperformed thus far, i.e. IT, healthcare and staples, remaining unchanged, the Indian market has been among the best performing in the past month," Credit Suisse said in a report.

Results of opinion polls have successively predicted a stronger victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, and predict 230+ seats for the alliance.

However, the global investment bank finds the opinion polls an unreliable indicator of the upcoming election result.

MUMBAI: The Nifty opened on a subdued note and registered a low of 5500.30 in the initial days of the week. With Thursday's upmove, the index witnessed a high of 5794.35 levels. Eventually, it closed near highs at 5783.10, with a robust gain of 254.55 points for the week ended April 18.


The index took support around 5500 levels and witnessed a strong short covering rally which pushed it to close above 5780 levels. Going forward, the Nifty has immediate resistance in the range of 5845 - 5870 followed by 5976 levels.

Any supply from 5870 levels can lead it to plunge up to the levels of 5700 /5660, followed by 5550.

Here is a list of top five trading strategies for the coming week:

Kotak Mahindra Bank: 'BUY' for a target of Rs 690 and with stop loss of Rs 649.40



On the daily chart of Kotak Mahindra BankBSE 1.19 %, we can see that the stock has been trading in an upward sloping contracting channel for the past few months. In the last week, the stock took support from its support trend line and witnessed a strong pullback.

With this pullback, the stock has registered an intermediate breakout on the back of heavy volumes. The stock has taken support from its long term moving average and is currently trading above its cluster of moving averages.

The stock has also closed above its upper end of Bollinger band. The momentum indicator is also rolling upward. We recommend 'Buy' now and again on dips up to Rs 658--664 with a stop loss placed below Rs 649.40 for targets of Rs 690 /710 levels.

Century Textile and Industries Ltd: 'BUY' for a target of Rs 312 and a stop loss of Rs 290.40


On the weekly chart of Century Textiles, we can see that the stock has been declining for past couple of months. In the last week, the stock has taken support at its rising trend line and formed a bullish candlestick pattern (as shown in the chart).

On the daily chart, the stock is trading above its short term of moving averages. The momentum indicator has taken support from oversold zone and rolling upward.

We recommend buying now with a stop loss placed below Rs 290.40 for targets of Rs312/324 levels.

Karnataka Bank: 'BUY' for a target of Rs 152 and a stop loss of Rs 141.80

The share price of Karnataka BankBSE 1.32 % has been trading in a declining channel for past couple of months. Last week, the stock has registered a breakout from this down sloping contracting channel.
The stock is also trading above its cluster of moving averages as well as closed upper end of Bollinger band. The momentum indicator is also rising. Going forward the stock is likely to head towards the declining gap witnessed on 21st Feb 2013.


Traders can create long position now and again on dips up to Rs 144-145 with a stop placed below Rs 141.80 levels, for targets of Rs 152/156/160 levels.

Tech Mahindra Ltd: 'SELL' for a target of Rs 920 and a stop loss of Rs 955



Tech Mahindra has been trading in a sideways range for past couple of weeks. This sideways momentum has taken the form of a head and shoulder pattern. With Thursday's down move, the stock has registered breakdown from the said pattern.

The stock is finding resistance from its near term moving average and declining. The momentum indicator is also rolling downward.

Traders can create short position now and again on rise up to Rs 955-962 with a stop placed above Rs 978.20 levels, for targets of Rs 920/900.

Tata Global Beverages Ltd: 'BUY' for a target of Rs 144 and a stop loss of Rs 137

The share price of Tata Global has been declining from the highs of Rs 181.50 for past couple of months. In this week, the stock has witnessed strong pullback which pushed it above its cluster of moving averages.



In the intraday chart, the stock has registered breakout from its inverted head and shoulder pattern on the back of heavy volumes. The stock has also closed above its cluster of moving averages as well as closed above upper end of Bollinger band.

We recommend 'buy' now and again on dips up to Rs137-138 with a stop loss placed below Rs 133.80 for the targets of Rs 144/148 levels.

NEW DELHI: The S&P BSE Sensex managed to recapture its key psychological level of 19000 in a volatile trade on Thursday and ended the week with gains of over 770 points, or 4.24 per cent.

The 50-share Nifty index also managed to recapture its key psychological level of 5700 and ended the week with gains of over 250 points or 4.6 per cent.

Markets have been in an upward trajectory throughout this week largely on hopes of monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of India, after inflation and current account deficit numbers showed some moderation.

"The Nifty had shown a strong recovery from low of 5477 level in this week and has already gained by about 4.5 per cent in this week," said Rakesh Goyal-Senior Vice President, Bonanza Portfolio Limited.

"Fall in gold prices and oil along with fair valuations seen at lower levels has led to this strong rally. However, since Nifty had been in downtrend for quite some time, profit-booking is likely near 5800 levels," he added.

Nifty has once again entered above 200-DMA level, which is a positive indicator in near term. Last quarter results for this fiscal along with global cues shall remain in focus for coming sessions.

"Investors will continue to put their money into sectors such as defensives, particularly pharma and FMCG where corporate earning visibility is positive," Nirmal Jain, Chairman, India InfolineBSE 1.08 % said in an interview with ET Now.

"In the past banks had gone through some bit of correction and the current valuations have become attractive. Private sector banks particularly will find more interest from the US side," he added.

After a series of bad news on politics, growth and interest rate outlook, India has seen some relief from falling commodity prices, especially gold and oil.

According to analysts, moderation in inflation numbers and commodity prices are likely to support RBI in easing monetary policy next month, which in turn has resulted a sharp rise in beaten down rate sensitive stocks.

"The downtrend in commodities is clearly good for the economy and eases the tail risks on the twin deficit to some extent," BofA-ML said in a note. "We continue to have a mix of rate sensitives like autos, banks and defensives stocks such as pharma in our model portfolio," the note added.

The market has a positive co-relation with crude as well as the CRB index reflecting the impact of global risk appetite on India, say analysts.

"In periods of a sharp fall in commodity prices, markets have on an average given a positive return of 4 per cent over 3 months with a 2 months lag," added the BofA-ML note.

BofA-ML is factoring a rate cut of 100 bps this fiscal, while Kotak expects 25 bps repo rate cut on May 3 and another 50 bps repo rate cut in two installments by end-CY2013.

Five stocks that touched 52-week highs

Sun Pharma: The stock has been in an upswing for the entire week and has gained nearly 5 per cent. The stock touched its 52-week high of Rs 925 on Thursday. However, towards the end the stock closed 0.04 per cent lower at Rs 916.05.

Lupin Ltd: The stock touched its 52-week high of Rs 685.70. However, towards the end of the week the stock pared most of its gains and closed 0.3 per cent lower at Rs 670.80.

ITC: Defensives have been the flavour of the week for markets, with ITC hitting fresh record highs on a regular basis. ITC surged over 1 per cent to hit its 52-week high of Rs 316.35. It closed 0.7 per cent higher at Rs 315.30.

Alembic Pharma: Pharma stocks have been on a roll this week. The stock has managed to gain nearly 10 per cent so far. The stock rose over 1 per cent to hit its 52-week high of Rs 120. However, it pared most of its gains and closed 0.4 per cent lower at Rs 117.90.

IndusInd Bank: The private sector bank surged over 8 per cent to hit its 52-week high of Rs 455.70, after it posted 37.6 per cent jump in net profit at Rs 307.40 crore for its fourth quarter ended March 31, 2013.

MUMBAI: Once accumulated as wealth by families to tide over rough times, gold has been reduced to a trading commodity. In the last few days, prices have plunged to register its biggest loss in more than three decades.

Gold prices have declined nearly 20 per cent while silver is down 23 per cent in 2013. International insiders report that four major fund houses shorted the commodity, which led to sharp declines on Friday, only to be followed up in Asia. The selling soon got out of control as margins and stoploss triggers came into play.

The gold prices have now officially entered the bear market with more than 20 per cent decline since its record highs above $1,900 in 2011 end.

Indian gold prices have declined less as the fall is cushioned by weakness in the Indian rupee. But here too, the prices have come off the record highs of nearly Rs 33,000 in 2011 to Rs 25,500 per 10 gms today. Gold prices in India hit a 19-month low while silver was at 26-month low and trading below Rs 44,000 per Kg.

The decline in gold led to Indian jewellery and bullion traders lowering shutters due to sharp decline in prices as they incur losses on holding stocks. The sellers are awaiting stability in prices before they quote prices.

In India, wedding season and Akshay Tritiya on May 13 are major buying events, which are expected to lend support to falling prices. Gold prices have seen some rebound from Boston bombings and war rhetoric from North Korea.

The forecast for gold is a difficult one to make right now. Most market analysts and participants feel that 2013 now will go down as a corrective year for precious metals and consolidate for a couple of years with modest gains.

The safe haven buying into the metal has been weak on inflation concerns and hopes of pick-up of growth in the US. While the economic growth data has not been consistent, but it has been getting better, leading to money flowing in equities. Another factor that led to onslaught on commodities was the lower than expected China growth data.

There are reports that Cyprus may be selling 12.5 tonnes of gold. Though the quantity is less than a weekly consumption in India, there is a fear that other EU countries with higher gold reserves could come into the market for sales.

There are also reports of Merril Lynch selling 4 million ounces on Comex which collectively led to decline in prices. To add to it, there has been a bearish gold report from Goldman Sachs that pushed buyers on sidelines. An opportunity selling that turned into panic selling and is now termed as Flash Crash.

The trading margins have increased across at Comex, Shanghai and Indian MCX as well and trading volumes have hit record highs on India's MCX and COMEX in US.

It augurs well with the Indian government which has been trying to discourage gold buying due to its impact on the current account deficit. India, China and much of Asia continue to be big buyers of gold.