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BUY' or 'SELL' ideas from experts for Friday, February 01, 2013

Financial TechnologiesBSE 0.03 % Ltd is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 1070 and a stop loss of Rs 1142 (Previous close - Rs 1119.70)

Tata MotorsBSE -1.07 % DVR is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 158 and a stop loss of Rs 172.50

Indian Oil Corporation LtdBSE 1.44 % is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 345 and a stop loss of Rs 319 (Previous close - Rs 327.30)

Jet AirwaysBSE 0.88 % Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 660 and a stop loss of Rs 618 (Previous close - Rs 622.10)

Punjab National BankBSE -1.15 % is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 950 and a stop loss of Rs 893 (Previous close - Rs 912.45)

pre-market report

Headlines for the day
  • Dewan Housing plans to raise Rs4,000 cr via debentures route.
  • Union Bank to get Rs2,500 cr capital infusion.
  • SBI cuts base rate by mere 5 basis points 9.70%.
Events for the day
Results: Bayer CropScience, Grasim Industries, Cummins India, Siemens, Tata Global Beverages, Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals, Satyam Computer Services, Lupin, ICICI Bank, Thermax, Union Bank of India, Allahabad Bank, Punjab National Bank, Godrej Consumer Product.

stocks in focus in Thursday morning trade

1) ICICI BankBSE 1.11 % Ltd will be in focus ahead of its quarterly results. According to ET Now poll, the bank's net profit is likely to grow to Rs 2,087 crore, up 20.8 per cent, as compared to a net profit of Rs 1,728 crore, in the corresponding quarter last year.

2) HDFC BankBSE 0.48 % Ltd, after taking cues from RBI's rate cut yesterday, private sector HDFC Bank has decided to slash auto loan rates by up to 0.5 per cent.

"The interest rate on car loan will be lower by 0.25 per cent while two-wheeler loan will be cheaper by 0.5 per cent, a senior bank official confirmed when contacted," PTI reported.

3) Jet AirwaysBSE 0.96 % Ltd, after Etihad Airways may seek increased access to Indian destinations as part of its plan to pick up a 24% stake in Jet Airways (India) LtdBSE 0.96 %.

4) Oil India Ltd, after the government on Wednesday decided to off-load 10 per cent of its equity in Oil India (OIL) on February one to mop up Rs 2,500-3,000 crore.

5) Reliance IndustriesBSE 1.87 % Ltd, after the Delhi High Court set aside a November 6 order passed by the Chief Information Commission (CIC) directing capital market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India ( Sebi) to disclose information in the 2007 Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) insider trading case.

6) BHELBSE -0.56 %, after the company said it has commissioned a 100 MW hydro power generating set in Vietnam, a development that is likely to open up more opportunities for the state-run major in the fast-growing market.

7) Cummins India Ltd will be eyed ahead of its quarterly results. The company is likely to report a net profit of Rs 150 crore for the quarter ended December 2012, up 6 per cent, as compared to a net profit of Rs 141 crore in the same period a year ago, says ET Now poll.

8) Essar Shipping Ltd, after the company reported an over 63% decline in consolidated net profit at Rs 17.85 crore for the third quarter ended December 31, 2012, largely due to marginal sales growth, higher expenses as well as interest outgo.

9) Colgate-Palmolive India Ltd, after the oral care major reported a nearly 4% decline in net profit for the quarter ended December 31, 2012 to Rs 111.1 crore as the company upped ad spends to fight competition from rivals.

10) Godrej ConsumerBSE -0.46 % India Ltd will be eyed ahead of its quarterly results. The company is likely to report a net profit of Rs 206 crore for the quarter ended December 2012, up 23.50 per cent, as compared to a net profit of Rs 167 crore in the same period a year ago, says ET Now poll.

Ghost of GAAR has been buried; private investment to pick up next fiscal: P Chidambaram, Finance Minister

"We have to have a credible path of fiscal consolidation, and we must ensure that public borrowing does not crowd out private borrowing", FM said. (Pic by Reuters)
"We have to have a credible path of fiscal consolidation, and we must ensure that public borrowing does not crowd out private borrowing", FM said. (Pic by Reuters)
Finance Minister P Chidambaram, on the last leg of his four-nation sojourn to woo investors to India, says private sector investment will pick up in the next fiscal year. He tells ET Now in an interview from London that the red lines on fiscal prudence will not be crossed, the Congress party and the government were on the same page on the challenges before the economy and that they would present a responsible budget. Edited excerpts:

On the RBI's decision to cut rates and the growth vs inflation debate

Finance ministers will always lean in favour of growth and central bankers lean in favour of taming inflation, but the balance has to be sought by the governor. If he has come to the conclusion that this is a right balance at this time, I am not going to second guess him. I welcome the decision. Going forward, if inflation moderates, he will do more.
On RBI's assertion that challenges to growth are non-monetary in nature

What he means is that more is to be done on the fiscal side if we are to tame inflation and revive growth. That is my assessment too. We have to contain the fiscal deficit. We have to have a credible path of fiscal consolidation, and we must ensure that public borrowing does not crowd out private borrowing.

We are doing what we can and we will do more as we go forward. And once growth revives, say in the next fiscal year, then there is more room for both fiscal policy and monetary policy. But growth must revive and to revive growth, the ball is in the government's court.

Whether investors were holding back on investments and when will that change

As we speak now, my sense is that the public sector companies have started investing. They have been clearly told that they cannot sit on piles of cash. If they do not use it, they lose it. The numbers when they come out in March will show that they have moved forward on investment.

The private sector is little more wary. I have spoken to a number of private business houses. They are still wary, they are still cautious, but are beginning to show interest. There are more enquiries of banks, there are more people coming to see me to say 'Yes, we are going to do that'.

Give them another couple of months, they will wait for the budget, they will wait for the implementation of the budget and the tax changes if any. Like at the time of every budget, everybody anticipates or fears tax changes. By about April, when things are clearer, the budget will be out, the tax proposals will be clear. Next fiscal, private investment should pick up.

On the response of global investors towards India in his meetings with them

Well, the meetings start with a high degree of scepticism, but as the meeting goes into the second hour, or thereafter in one-on-one meetings, I find that there is greater confidence in what I am telling them. They are willing to believe that the government is determined to take the fiscal prudence path. On GAAR, there is universal welcome to what we have done.

My sense is that the ghost of GAAR has been buried... If anyone has to unwind his present positions, he can always unwind them. GAAR only hits at unjustified tax avoidance arrangement. So, there is enough time for people to unwind any such arrangement and become tax compliant.

On awarding new private bank licences, especially to corporate groups

The (RBI's rough) guidelines say that more licences will be given to the private sector (although) there is no specific reference to corporate houses. The government has given its views. The governor told me that he would be able to finalise the guidelines in about two weeks.

We should wait for the final guidelines...Who will qualify for bank licences from the private sector, whether any corporate or any kind of corporate will be excluded, I cannot say. But if the guidelines are laid out and transparently spelt out, and, if a corporate satisfies those guidelines, I do not see any reason why a corporate should not be given the licence.

Twenty stocks in focus in Wednesday morning trade

NEW DELHI: The BSE Sensex rose 0.3 per cent in early trade on Wednesday, led by gains in RIL, ICICI Bank and State Bank of India.

At 9:20 a.m., the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 0.20 per cent higher at 20,024. RIL (0.8 per cent), ICICI Bank (0.7 per cent) and SBI (1.01 per cent) led the gainers pack.

The Nifty was trading 0.2 per cent higher at 6,065.15. It touched a high of 6070.95 and a low of 6061.05 in early trade today.
Here is a list of twenty stocks that are likely to be in action in morning trade today:

1) Idea Cellular LtdBSE -0.31 %, after the telecom major reported a smaller-than-expected 14 per cent increase in quarterly profit as higher network operating costs ate into margin.

Idea, India's best-performing telecoms stock last year, said its consolidated net profit rose to 2.29 billion rupees for its fiscal third quarter ended December 31, from 2.01 billion rupees a year earlier.

2) Arvind Ltd will be in focus ahead of its quarterly results. The company is likely to report adjusted net profit of Rs 70.3 crore for the quarter ended December 2012, down 10.1 per cent, as compared to a net profit of Rs 78.20 crore in the same period a year ago, says ET Now poll.

3) Reliance Capital LtdBSE 0.86 %, after the company posted over 68 per cent rise in consolidated net profit at Rs 101 crore for the third quarter ended December 31, 2012 on the back of all-round growth.

4) Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd will be eyed ahead of its quarterly results. The company is likely to report a net profit of Rs 5.1 crore for the quarter ended December 2012, as compared to a net loss of Rs 64 crore in the same period a year ago, says ET Now poll.

5) United Phosphorus LtdBSE 0.11 % after the agro chemical firm posted over 24 per cent rise in its consolidated net profit at Rs 166.32 crore during the third quarter of the current fiscal, on the back of higher sales.

6) PVR Ltd will be in focus ahead of its quarterly results. The company is likely to report a net profit of Rs 14 crore for the quarter ended December 2012, up 56 per cent, as compared to a net profit of Rs 9 crore in the same period a year ago, says ET Now poll.

7) Glenmark PharmaceuticalsBSE -3.13 % ltd, after the pharma major reported nearly five-fold jump in consolidated net profit at Rs 212.91 crore for its third quarter ended December 31, on account of robust sales and outlicensing revenue from Forest Laboratories.

8) Jubilant Life Sciences LtdBSE 0.87 %, after the company reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 26.69 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2012 mainly on account of robust sales, despite exceptional loss of Rs 71 crore.

9) Godrej Properties Ltd will be in focus ahead of its quarterly results. The company is likely to report adjusted net profit of Rs 34.70 crore for the quarter ended December 2012, up 21 per cent, as compared to a net profit of Rs 28.60 crore in the same period a year ago, says ET Now poll.

10) Gujarat State Fertilisers and Chemicals Ltd, after the company posted 21 per cent fall in net profit at Rs 136.49 crore in its third quarter ended December 31.

11) IpcaBSE 0.89 % Labs Ltd will be in focus ahead of its quarterly results. The company is likely to report adjusted net profit of Rs 102 crore for the quarter ended December 2012, down 2 per cent, as compared to a net profit of Rs 104 crore in the same period a year ago, says ET Now poll.

12) Titan Industries LtdBSE 1.83 % will be in focus ahead of its quarterly results. The company is likely to report a net profit of Rs 205 crore for the quarter ended December 2012, up 25 per cent, as compared to a net profit of Rs 163.90 crore in the same period a year ago, says ET Now poll.

13) HCL Technologies LtdBSE 0.53 %, after the software services major said it has entered into a multi-year, multi-million dollar pact with technology firm Cobham to deliver cost-efficient engineering and R&D services.

14) Crompton Greaves LtdBSE -0.78 %, after the company posted a Rs 189-crore loss for the third quarter of FY13, weighed down by employee liabilities due to restructuring of its operations in Europe.

15) Bharti Airtel LtdBSE -0.06 %, after India's top mobile phone operator, has bid for a telecoms licence in Myanmar as part of plans to expand in overseas markets.

16) Hero MotoCorp LtdBSE -0.83 %, after the company has commenced its operations in three Latin American countries - El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala in Latin America - eventually hoping to go to as many as 30 countries spread across the globe.

17) Torrent Pharma Ltd, after the company said its consolidated net profit rose 35.04 per cent to Rs 112.33 crore in the third quarter ended December 31 on account of strong sales in both domestic and global markets.

18) Shriram City Union Finance, after the company has reported a 34.8 per cent jump in net profit at Rs 112.52 crore for the third quarter ended December 31, 2012.

19) Dabur LtdBSE 0.08 %, after the FMCG major posted 22.15 per cent jump in consolidated net profit at Rs 211.11 crore in the October-December quarter this fiscal on the back of robust sales across categories, including hair oil and skin care.

20) Reliance IndustriesBSE 1.64 % Ltd, after India's most valuable company, will look to bring down the proportion of bank debt to its overall borrowings to about half from the current 80%, while increasing its reliance on public market debt and funding from export credit agencies.

RBI cuts repo, CRR by 25 bps; will banks respond in kind?

Moneycontrol Bureau
The Reserve Bank of India on Tuesday cut the repo rate—the rate at which it lends to banks—and also cash reserve ratio by 25 basis points each. While the stock market cheered the move even though the cut in repo rate was on expected lines, bond market remanined lacklusture as it already factored in. The central bank also lowered its inflation forecast for the current fiscal to 6.8 percent from 7.5 percent. The simultaneous cut in both repo and CRR has surprised many economists considering RBI's cautious view in its macroeconomic report released yesterday.

A section of the market feels the central bank may have had little choice other than to cut the rate considering that the government has been doing its bit to address the fiscal deficit issue. So far, the RBI had been insisting that monetary easing would do little to stoke growth as long as the government did not manage its finances well. This time, the RBI has admitted to the government's efforts in its policy statement.

"Various measures undertaken by the Government since mid-September have significantly lifted market sentiment which, in due course, should spur investment," the RBI policy said.

At the same time, the RBI has cautioned that it will take time before the government policies actually revive growth in the economy.

Some feel the cut in policy could be also to lower borrowing costs for the government and facilitate the fiscal consolidation process by helping the government fix its balance sheet.

Many equity analysts have cautioned that banks will not be able to reduce their lending rates despite the rate cut, as deposit growth remains weak. Cutting lending rates would also necessitate cutting deposit rates, and the latter move could further alienate depositors.

And many bank chiefs had cautioned that unless there was a CRR cut as well, they would not be able to transmit the repo rate cut to their customers. So that could explain the CRR cut. But some economists point out that the CRR cut contradicts inflation management, as the RBI will now have to grapple with excess liquidity in the system. (The CRR cut will infuse around Rs 18,000 crore into the system).

By the RBI's own admission, inflation remains one of the key threats to its macroeconomic management going ahead. That is because demand pressures have begun to ease, but supply side constraints remain.

“In the absence of an effective supply response, inflationary pressures may return and persist with adverse implications for macroeconomic stability,” the RBI policy said, adding, “further moderation in domestic inflation going into 2013-14 is likely to be muted as the correction of under-pricing of administered items is still incomplete and food inflation remains elevated.”

But the biggest headache for the RBI remains the widening current account deficit. Because of the weakness in the global economy, it is unlikely that India's export growth will recover to the point where it can solve a good chunk of the CAD problem.

Foreign portfolio flows have helped bridge the CAD so far, but that is a risky strategy.

"Financing the CAD with increasingly risky and volatile flows increases the economy's vulnerability to sudden shifts in risk appetite and liquidity preference, potentially threatening macroeconomic and exchange rate stability," the RBI policy said.

And while the market is hoping the RBI move today marks the beginning of a declining interest rate environment, the key to growth will be outside the monetary policy.

"The key to stimulating growth is a vigorous and sustained revival in investment. Achieving this will, however, depend on a number of factors such as bridging the infrastructure gaps, especially in power and transport, hastening approvals, removing procedural bottlenecks, and improving governance," the RBI policy said.


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Reliance Long Term Equity Fund Sundaram Taxsaver - (Open Ended Fund) - Reg
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Bharti, Idea get relief from HC in one-time fee case

Good news for Bharti and Idea. The Bombay High Court (HC) has given a stay to Bharti Airtel   in the one-time fee case till February 24. Also, Idea Cellular   has secured a stay against spectrum fee till March 1. CNBC-TV18's Ashmit Kumar reports.
The government had sought to raise nearly Rs 21,000 crore by imposing this additional fee. The two telecom companies Bharti Airtel and Idea Cellular had moved to Bombay High Court with respect to the one-time spectrum fee.

The telecom majors have challenged it on the grounds that under Section 4 of the Telegraph Act, the government does not have any positive powers or sanction by the law so to speak. That is the version coming in from the lawyers who sought to give the image that the government at this point does not have the powers.

At this point Bharti Airtel has been slapped with one-time spectrum fee of about Rs 5,200 crore and Idea has been confronted with a burden of about Rs 2,000 crore. Now, the critical element here is that a similar order of a stay has been granted for both these parties. As of now, the one-time spectrum fee has been stayed until March 1.

our winning picks

StockExpertReco DateReco Price (Rs)Peak From Reco % GainCurrent Price (Rs) % Gain
Hawkins CookerJagdish MalkaniJun 23rd 20071192485.001983.862436.951947.86
Gitanjali GemsSP TulsianDec 17th 200877614.05701.11577.80650.39
Eicher MotorsPN VijayJul 30th 20073543240.00816.422650.70648.79
Tata CofeeAshish ChughNov 14th 20072381674.50603.281586.00566.39
Heritage Foods (India)Ashish ChughMay 29th 200975569.75656.64468.80525.07
Natco PharmaAshish ChughAug 5th 200874505.20581.32462.55525.07
Coromandel FertiliserRajen ShahOct 12th 200636376.00959.15224.30523.06
Mcleod RusselJagdish MalkaniApr 9th 200763372.00490.48341.75442.46
Bayer CropscienceSP TulsianMar 7th 20072241341.80499.021190.90431.65
Axis BankIndia Infoline PicksMar 9th 20092951608.00444.621384.10369.19
Tata CoffeeSP TulsianSep 1st 20093581674.50367.411586.00343.02
Selan ExplorationsAshish ChughNov 4th 200673425.37480.31311.35326.51
Poly MedicureAmbareesh BaligaJul 14th 2006110485.00340.91462.00320.00
Astral Poly TechnikKR ChokseyFeb 10th 201090423.65373.35367.55308.39
LupinPN VijayJul 31st 2008147631.90329.86599.50307.82
Kewal Kiran ClothingKashyap PujaraMar 17th 2007194875.00351.03706.35264.10
MaricoIndia Infoline PicksJan 23rd 200960250.00318.06217.35262.25
3M IndiaJagdish MalkaniSep 5th 200611504950.00330.434016.05249.22
Nestle IndiaIndia Infoline PicksDec 22nd 200813525040.00272.704645.20243.58
Sun TV NetworkKR ChokseyNov 19th 2008139556.50301.52444.25219.60
IDFCDeven ChokseyJun 9th 200655235.00327.27169.60208.36
Shriram Transport FinancePN VijayOct 27th 2007248899.90262.86758.60205.89
Kovai Medical Centre & HoAshish ChughJun 1st 200755194.85254.27167.00203.64
Gitanjali GemsSP TulsianMay 20th 2006195614.05214.90577.80196.31

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