Do you think the market is very nervous stepping into the all important event day?

You are sounding a bit more bearish than what I usually hear you speak. Just wondering if he does not bring any surprise on the fisc deficit front, let us stay it sticks to 5.3, 5.2, and 4.8 odd, just looking at the current environment globally and locally, do you think we would be headed for lower levels over the next couple of months, two or three months?

Divi's Laboratories Ltd is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 965 and a stop loss of Rs 1020

HCL Technologies BSE -0.79 % Ltd is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 695 and a stop loss of Rs 720

BHEL Ltd is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 318 and a stop loss of Rs 336

JP Associates Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 78 and a stop loss of Rs 66

Asian PaintsBSE 0.36 % Ltd is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 4250 and a stop loss of Rs 4425

Bharti Airtel BSE 2.91 % Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 332 and a stop loss of Rs 314

Dabur India Ltd is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 123.50 and a stop loss of Rs 130.25

Tech Mahindra BSE 1.04 % Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 1080 and a stop loss of Rs 1024

Tata Motors Ltd BSE -1.49 % is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 272 and a stop loss of Rs 286

IDFC Ltd is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 135 and a stop loss of Rs 155

Jain Irrigation  BSE -3.77 % Ltd is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 48 and a stop loss of Rs 61

State Bank of India BSE 0.96 % is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 2270 and a stop loss of Rs 2190

Jubilant FoodWorks Ltd is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 1025 and a stop loss of Rs 1080

HUL is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 467 and a stop loss of Rs 449

Sun TV Ltd is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 405 and a stop loss of Rs 429.50

DLF Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 283 and a stop loss of Rs 269

ITC Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 306 and a stop loss of Rs 290

Finance Minister P Chidambaram is likely to announce net borrowing of nearly Rs 5.18 lakh crore to rein in fiscal deficit at the stated 4.8 percent levels for FY'14 in the Union Budget on Thursday, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch (BofA-ML) said in a report today.

"We expect Chidambaram to project Rs 5.175 trillion (lakh crore) market borrowing, with a fiscal deficit target of 4.8 percent of GDP," BofA-ML India Economist Indranil Sen Gupta said.

Chidambaram's predecessor Pranab Mukherjee had last year presented a plan to borrow a net of Rs 4.79 lakh crore, with a fiscal deficit target of 5.1 percent. Chidambaram has scaled up the target a bit to 5.3 percent for this fiscal.

BofA-ML expects the total net borrowing inclusive of the states' requirements to touch Rs 7.075 lakh crore, the report said.

Of the estimated gross borrowing target, banks will pick up about Rs 3 lakh crore, while other market players will take another Rs 2.4 lakh crore, the US brokerage said. It added that the RBI will have to help raise the remainder Rs 1.675 lakh crore through its bond buyback or open market operations.

After assuming for a 0.50 percent cut in the cash reserve ratio, the report estimated that the RBI will have to inject Rs 1.99 lakh crore of reserve money to fund the current level of credit growth of 16.5 percent. In the first half of this fiscal, the government had got Parliamentary nod to borrow an additional Rs 30,000 crore. But last week, on the back of cutting budgeted expenditure by almost Rs 93,000 crore, the government cancelled a bond issue of Rs 12,000 crore.

NEW DELHI:
The Indian markets were trading in a narrow range with positive bias on Monday, led by gains in Infosys, Tata Motors and TCS.

At 11:30 am, the 50-share Nifty index was at 5,861.20, up 10 points or 0.18 per cent. It touched a high of 5,874.25 and a low of 5,837.30 in trade today.

The Sensex was at 19,363.16, up 44 points or 0.23 per cent. It touched a high of 19,382.89 and a low of 19,280.46 in trade today.

Share bazaar fundamentals spoke to various experts for their top 20 ideas for today:

Ashwani Gujral of ashwanigujral.com

Tech Mahindra Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 1100 and a stop loss of Rs 1040

Wipro Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 442 and a stop loss of Rs 419

DLF Ltd is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 265 and a stop loss of Rs 281

Cipla Ltd is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 364 and a stop loss of Rs 381

Mitesh Thacker of miteshthacker.com
AB Nuvo Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 1125 and a stop loss of Rs 1079

Asian PaintsBSE -0.82 % Ltd is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 4350 and a stop loss of Rs 4521

HCL Technologies Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 745 and a stop loss of Rs 716

UltraTechBSE -1.24 % Cements Ltd is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 1860 and a stop loss of Rs 1941

Sandeep Wagle, founder & MD, APTART Technical Advisory Services

BPCL is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 372 and a stop loss of Rs 388

Yes Bank Ltd is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 465 and a stop loss of Rs 490

Wipro Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 440 and a stop loss of Rs 419

Prakash Gaba, CFT, prakashgaba.com

Infosys Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 3000 and a stop loss of Rs 2865

TCS Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 1500 and a stop loss of Rs 1450

Wipro Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 435 and a stop loss of Rs 415

Shubham Agarwal, AVP / Sr. Technical Analyst, Motilal OswalBSE 0.50 %

TCS Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 1620 and a stop loss of Rs 1375

Idea Cellular Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 130 and a stop loss of Rs 108

Coal India Ltd is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 295 and a stop loss of Rs 345

Deepak Mohoni, Director, trendwatchindia.com

IRB InfrastructureBSE -0.34 % Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 124 and a stop loss of Rs 117.50

Tata Motors LtdBSE 1.64 % is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 312 and a stop loss of Rs 295

HexawareBSE -0.63 % Technologies Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 92 and a stop loss of Rs 86.50

Dr. Jayesh Gaygol: What is a target of Tinplate in six months? Will it cross Rs 55?

A: Tinplate is India's largest indigenous producer of tin coated and tin free steel sheets providing packaging solutions to the food processing industry and also caters to other industries like Chemicals, Paints, Electronics and Defense etc. It enjoys around 35% market share in India. The company reported strong performance in Dec quarter with 65% growth in topline & 33% in bottomline. Since you are looking for a short term horizon - I believe that in the short term it might move upto 55 levels but one should keep a strict stop loss.

Priya Nambiar: What are your views on Cochin Minerals and Rutile ?

A: CMRL's main product is Synthetic Rutile, which finds application as raw material for the Titanium pigment and titanium sponge/metal industry. Other products are by products.  Ferric Chloride has applications as an etching agent and is an effective coagulant for drinking water and effluent treatment. Ferrous Chloride is coagulant for drinking water and effluent treatment. Iron Hydroxide (Cemox) clay used for brick and tile making.

During H1FY12, net profit rose by 224% to Rs35.0 crore on 50% higher sales of Rs138.6 crore. OP and NP margin stood at 39.6% and 25.3% Vs 20.4% and 11.7% respectively in H1FY12. H1FY13 EPS works out to Rs44.9 Vs Rs13.8 in H1FY12.”

There has been improvement in the global demand for Synthetic Rutile/and Ferric Chloride in the sea water desalination plant in Gulf countries and for Ferrous chloride in sewage treatment plants in African Countries. It exports more than 80% of its production and in the current scenario where the Rupee is weakening against the USD, the company could benefit out of higher Rupee realization. These give strong visibility to revenue going forward.  At the CMP of Rs267, the share is trading at a P/E of 3.2x on FY13E and 2.8x on FY14E.

Mukesh Lovely Thareja: What is your call on Titan ?

A: Titan is a good buy for medium / long term.  This is fundamentally a very strong company and will continue to deliver excellent results and growth over the next few years.

Santosh Dubey: I am new in market and want to invest in currency and gold. So please suggest me should I wait some more time to buy gold or should I start buying now?

A: If you are a long term investor, you can start buying gold now.  Gold price will keep fluctuating based on multiple factors in the short term.  However, in the long run, we believe that there is a secular up trend.  But it should also be kept in mind that the return from Gold will not be as spectacular as it was during the last few years.  Gold will provide a steady return of 8-12% over the next 12 months.

Varun Bhatia: I have 50 shares of L&T at Rs 1690 a share? What should I do, hold or sell?

A: L&T is an excellent company.  We believe that prospect of L&T is good in medium / long term.   India’s infrastructure story will help L&T.  Being efficient and well managed provides it with an edge.

As soon as the investment cycle starts in India, L&T will be the biggest beneficiary.

Prasad Dhodapkar: What is your call L&T Finance ?

A: L&T Finance is a strong candidate for a banking license.  However, this expectation is already factored in by the market and this reflects in the price.  Considering the parentage and it’s fundamental strength, we believe that L&T Finance is a good hold for medium / long term.

Chitresh Lunawat: What is your call on Madhucon Projects ?

A: India’s GDP growth has clearly slowed down and both infrastructure and capital goods sectors are suffering the most.  The pains points are yet to be removed.  From the value perspective, the infrastructure companies look attractive.  However, we believe that the time for value buying in these sectors haven't yet come.  It is better to avoid Madhucon Project in short / medium term.

Anshuman Chakrapani: What's your view on JP Associates ?

A: JP Associates is a fundamentally strong company.  However, the problem ailing the infrastructure and capital good sectors, may also affect JP Associates.  At current levels, JP Associates can be acquired for a medium / long term.  However, in the short term, till the economic environment improves, JP Associates may continue to struggle.

Nilesh Gala: What your view on TV18 and Mirza International ? Also can you tell me about Shalimar Paints ?

A: TV18 has corrected significantly in the recent past.  At current levels, this looks good. Exposure can be taken in TV18.

Mirza International has improved performance over the last few quarters.  However it is better to stick to established large cap and mid cap stocks.

Shalimar Paints is one of the leading paints manufacturing companies of India, reported its financial results for the quarter ended 30th Dec, 2012. The Third quarter witnesses a healthy increase in overall sales as well as profitability of the company. The company’s net profit jumps to Rs.46.90 million against Rs.37.90 million in the corresponding quarter ending of previous year, an increase of 23.75%. Revenue for the quarter increase 14.63 percent.

At the current market price of Rs 136, the stock P/E ratio is at 14.87 x FY13E and 12.99 x FY14E respectively. Earnings per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings for FY13E and FY14E is seen at Rs.9.15 and Rs.10.47 respectively. Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 16% and 19% over 2011 to 2014E respectively. On the basis of EV/EBITDA, the stock trades at 6.87 x for FY13E and 6.03 x for FY14E. Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 3.18 x and 2.55 x respectively for FY13E and FY14E. We expect that the company surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next years, will keep its growth story in the coming quarters also.

Anuj Khatri: IT majors held out during this recent turbulent ride. Should one go ahead n buy or be at sideline and wait for a dip? Also, I bought drowning Tata Steel at Rs 366. Should I wait for a upswing or get out? Please suggest stop-loss, time horizon?

A: Large cap IT companies have been performing well inspite of the global turmoil.  We believe that TCS and HCL will continue to outperform and deliver good results.  Exposure can be taken whenever there is a correction.

Regarding small and mid cap, one needs to be extremely careful.  While opportunities exist in the market place, performances of these companies are not assured.

TATA Steel has probably seen the worst.  We expect that performance will improve hereon.   Domestic production is increasing as a percentage of overall production.  This should significantly help in overall margins.  The long term investor can explore entering or remaining invested TATA Steel at current levels.

The government has taken non-populist measures in last 3-4 months which includes railway fare hike, diesel price increase and cut down in subsidy on LPG. Therefore, the government is determined that reforms cannot be ignored. India's credit rating was threatened and things have gone out of control. A responsible budget is likely because the government has been taking responsible steps in the last 3 months after 3 years of inaction.

Therefore, I am quite hopeful that the budget may be much more responsible. This year's fiscal deficit will be likely at 5.3%. More importantly, we have to see how realistic revenue and cost assumptions are. That is what foreign investors will look at whether they are realistic enough or they are just making things look the way it should be.

Q-What exactly should the Finance minister prioritise - inflation or growth?

Ans- At this point of time, it should be growth. The Finance minister has to get RBI into confidence because we cannot have a chariot with two wheels moving in different directions. It would not solve us any purpose - neither growth nor inflation. However, growth is the key requirement because RBI numbers and the data which is given out do not track employment numbers, which is very important for our country. When inflation is driven more by supply side constraints than items like food and fuel, if we do not focus on growth, things can become very bad.

Q: Do you expect a post budget rally?

Ans: It is very difficult to comment on that. A pre-budget rally is possible because the Finance minister believes that we need a vibrant stock market for improving sentiment, disinvestment or getting our current account deficit under control through flow of capital. Therefore, once he is committed then the odds are in favour.

Q: What can really spook the markets?

Ans: The first factor is the tax of dividend. This is because there is a temptation for people eho thinks that the dividend go to super rich. However, it is tax paid profit. More importantly, most of the promoters get the larger dividend. When we increase it, there will be a tendency not to give dividend but the other ways to sell shares and buy it in preferential.

This will impact smaller shareholders because decision takers are the large shareholders who have larger chunk of dividend. There are certain pressures which can come from various political quarters and if it happens in budget, the market will become fragile. There will be no buyers in the market and it will fall like a pack of

BRUSSELS: 
The European Union predicted Friday that the economy of the 17 member countries that use the euro will shrink again in 2013 even though it will see its fortunes improve in the second half of the year.
In its winter forecast, the EU Commission, the EU's executive arm, said the eurozone is likely to shrink a further 0.3 per cent this year, in contrast to November's prediction of 0.1 per cent growth.
Across the eurozone, it said the debt crisis and the associated belt-tightening are weighing on activity, official figures showed the eurozone contracted 0.6 per cent in the final quarter of 2012 from the previous three-month period. The eurozone has been in recession, officially defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, since the second quarter of 2012, when concerns about the future of the euro were particularly acute.
Many countries are in deep recessions, such as Greece and Spain, as they push spending cuts and tax increases to deal with their public finances. Others have suffered in the fallout, such as export powerhouse Germany, Europe's largest economy, which contracted by a quarterly rate of 0.6 per cent in the final quarter of 2012.
Despite what it terms ``headwinds,'' the Commission expects the eurozone recession to bottom out over the first half of 2013. By the fourth quarter, it forecast that the eurozone economy will be 0.7 per cent bigger than the same period in 2012. In 2014, growth of 1.4 per cent was penciled in.
``The decisive policy action undertaken recently is paving the way for a return to recovery,'' said Olli Rehn, the Commission's top economic official.
A number of recent economic indicators have pointed to an improving outlook, particularly in Germany. Much of the recent calm in financial markets with regard to the eurozone has been credited to the debt-reduction measures and a commitment by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi to do ``whatever it takes'' to save the euro.
The wider economy of the 27-nation EU, which includes non-euro members such as Britain and Poland, is also bottoming out, according to the Commission. Here too, it lowered its 2013 growth forecast from 0.4 per cent to 0.1 per cent. And in 2014, it expects the world's largest economic bloc with 500 million people to grow 1.6 per cent.
One of the key problems afflicting Europe is unemployment, and the Commission said an improvement was unlikely soon, with the jobless rate in the eurozone rate swelling to a record 12 per cent.
While unemployment is high, the trend is not uniform: Germany has seen unemployment falling while Greece and Spain have seen their rates spike to around 26 per cent. The Commission expects them to rise to around 27 per cent.
The Commission forecast that Germany will grow 0.5 per cent this year, but France, Europe's second-largest, will record only 0.1 per cent growth. Italy and Spain are expected to decline 1 per cent and 1.4 per cent respectively.
Meager growth means some governments might have to tighten their belts further _ possibly in France, where the 2013 budget is predicated on a growth rate of 0.8 per cent.
The Commission said France was likely to miss its target of getting its deficit below 3 per cent of its annual gross domestic product. Instead, it predicted the deficit will rise from 3.7 per cent this year to 3.9 per cent next. And it forecast that France's debt burden will rise from 90 per cent of GDP last year to 95 per cent in 2014.
Rehn urged the French government to push ahead with measures to reduce its deficit and implement reforms to the labor market and to pensions. ``France faces significant challenges,'' he said.
Tom Rogers, senior economic adviser at Ernst & Young, said he was encouraged with the message coming from the Commission.
``Reforms are already bearing fruit in a number of peripheral economies, and this should be an incentive for other governments to follow suit,'' said Rogers.
Rehn also urged Italy _ which holds national elections this weekend _ to continue tackling its debt and strengthening its competitiveness.
``With the elevated level of public debt, it is essential that the country stays on the reform course and maintains a consistent strategy of fiscal consolidation,'' he said.
Some countries, however, might be granted time by the Commission in the coming months to bring their finances under control.
Rehn said as long as member states ``have a credible medium term strategy for fiscal consolidation,'' then ``it can make sense to take into account weaker growth to have more time for the fiscal adjustment.''
Chris Williamson, economist with London-based Markit, welcomed the likely flexibility.
``This will clearly help to ease some of the political and social tensions that are apparent in the peripheral countries of Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece,'' Williamson said.
Greece has faced the toughest hurdles and the Commission forecasts for the country show it's still got a struggle ahead.
The country is expected to shrink 4.4 per cent this year _ Greece's sixth year in recession _ before posting growth of 0.6 per cent in 2014.
One bright spot is that the Commission expects Greece to achieve a primary budget surplus _ whereby revenues are higher than spending excluding interest payments _ sometime this year. However, given the depth of its recession, Greece's debt burden will rise from 162 per cent of annual GDP in 2012 to 175 per cent this year and next.

NEW DELHI: Indian markets are trading in a narrow range with positive bias on Friday, led by gains in Reliance Industries, Infosys and ICICI Bank.

At 11:30 am, the 50-share index was at 5,856.20, up 4.4 points or 0.08 per cent. It touched a high of 5,862.30 and a low of 5,835.80 in trade today.

The Sensex was at 19,357.52, up 32 points or 0.17 per cent. It touched a high of 19,366.64 and a low of 19,289.83 in trade today.

Gitanjali Gems Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 595 and a stop loss of Rs 565

InfosysBSE 1.18 % Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 2900 and a stop loss of Rs 2810

Yes Bank Ltd is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 450 and a stop loss of Rs 490

HDFC Ltd is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 770 and a stop loss of Rs 805

CNX IT Index is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 7150 and a stop loss of Rs 6952

Bank Nifty is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 11700 and a stop loss of Rs 12250

Dabur Ltd is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 125 and a stop loss of Rs 131.50

HDFC Ltd is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 765 and a stop loss of Rs 810

ITC BSE -1.45 % Ltd is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 289 and a stop loss of Rs 297

Jet Airways BSE -4.35 % Ltd is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 500 and a stop loss of Rs 553

SpiceJet Ltd is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 35 and a stop loss of Rs 38

Idea Cellular Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 115 and a stop loss of Rs 109

IRB Infrastructure Ltd is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 110 and a stop loss of Rs 118.50

Yes Bank Ltd is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 458 and a stop loss of Rs 489 DLF BSE 2.77 % Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 290 and a stop loss of Rs 274.50

Idea Cellular Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 116 and a stop loss of Rs 109.50 Sun Pharma BSE 2.06 % Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 846 and a stop loss of Rs 800
  
IDFC Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 161 and a stop loss of Rs 152 Titan Industries BSE -0.89 % Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 263 and a stop loss of Rs 253

Zee Entertainment Ltd is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 210 and a stop loss of Rs 218

• Telcos served with a demand of one-time spectrum fee: The telecom companies (telcos) were served notices demanding payment of one-time spectrum fee. Consequently, most companies dragged the government to the court and obtained a stay on the decision.
• 4G licence holders permitted to offer voice services: The Telecom Commission permitted players with a broadband wireless access (BWA) license (4G service) to provide voice services under the unified licence regime. The BWA license holders would be permitted to offer voice services to customers by paying an additional Rs1,658 crore for a pan-India licence. The development increases the possibility of Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) entering the voice telephony space, thus raising the risk of emerging as a disruptive force in the industry.
• Supreme Court orders unsuccessful bidders in November 2012 auction to cease operations: The Supreme Court ordered the telecom companies that were unsuccessful in winning the fresh 2G spectrum in November 2012 auction or those that did not participate in the auction process to immediately cease operations. The ruling led to players like Uninor shutting operations in Mumbai.

Outlook and valuation: The recent months have witnessed a substantial decline in competitive intensity providing the telecom players with elbow room to increase tariffs and reduce discount and freebies. We believe that the era of cut-throat tariff war is over. Moreover, most of the overhangs such as the issue of one-time spectrum fee have been factored in by the market. In view of the improving fundamentals, we maintain our positive bias on the telecom sector and prefer Bharti owing to its leadership position in the Indian telecom market.

Benchmark indices logged their biggest single-day loss in seven months Thursday, as the slide in European shares unnerved investors in India as well. Metal, banking, capital goods and realty shares bore the brunt of the sell-off as the Sensex crashed 317.39 points to close at 19,325.36. The Nifty shed 90.80 points to close at 5,852.25.

Brokers said unwinding of derivatives trades could have been one of the major reasons for the collapse. It is not clear if foreign institutional investors were sellers in a big way, but many players feel that could well have been the case.

“In our view, FII flows are the biggest risk to the market. They have crossed 2 percent of market cap on a 12-month trailing basis, which has historically been a warning sign for prospective equity returns,” said a Morgan Stanley note to clients this morning, adding, “The trigger for a reversal of flows comes from a global risk off which is hard to time.”

So far in 2013 alone, FIIs have net bought around Rs 43,000 crore worth of shares, coming on the heels of Rs 1.3 lakh crore of net purchases in 2012.

Unlike in the previous weeks when investors were mostly dumping midcap and small cap shares, Thursday’s crash was broad-based.

“I don’t think any kind of negative perception has started building up. This seems to be the pure global effect and may be because of the FII risk-off (outlook),” investment expert SP Tulsian said in an interview to CNBC-TV18.

Market expectations are low ahead of the Union Budget next Thursday, as the widely-held view is that Finance Minister Chidambaram is likely to focus on fiscal consolidation through expenditure cuts. While this would help avert a sovereign rating downgrade, it would also delay economic recovery, say analysts.

ABB, JSW Steel, JSW Energy, Pantaloon Retail, Shriram Transport and Sun TV were among the big losers of the day, shedding between 5-8 percent.

Shares from the FMCG, pharma and IT shares fared slightly better as investors sought refuge in defensive sectors.

Videocon Industries was the top gainer, rising 5.2 percent. Glaxosmithkline Consumer, Godrej Consumer, Glenmark Pharma and Hexware rose between 0.5-2.0 percent.

“There are low expectations on the Budget and in the absence of that investors are again getting focused on what is happening in the global markets. The Fed minutes which came out spooked Asia and that has followed on through to our markets and to Europe as well,” Dipan Mehta, member, BSE & NSE, said in an interview to CNBC-TV18.

“Now, we are seeing a lot of global commentators being worried about the turn in the interest rate cycle globally which means that if the Federal Reserve is going to follow a slightly tighter monetary policy then that is going to have an impact on all risky assets and commodities and emerging markets are amongst the risky assets,” he said.

Tech Mahindra Ltd BSE 2.67 % is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 1080 and a stop loss of Rs 1010

Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 692 and a stop loss of Rs 668

Sun TV Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 462 and a stop loss of Rs 439

REC Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 252 and a stop loss of Rs 236

Punjab National Bank is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 884 and a stop loss of Rs 850

Cipla Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 402 and a stop loss of Rs 383

McLeod BSE 1.19 % Russel Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 395 and a stop loss of Rs 367.40

Apollo Tyre LtdBSE 1.37 % is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 93.50 and a stop loss of Rs 85.50

Hexaware Technologies Ltd BSE 1.23 % is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 94 and a stop loss of Rs 82.50

Coal India LtdBSE 0.71 % is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 322 and a stop loss of Rs 344

Tech Mahindra Ltd is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 1075 and a stop loss of Rs 1010

Wockhardt Ltd BSE -0.77 % is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 1960 and a stop loss of Rs 1830

Sundaram Finance Ltd BSE 4.15 % is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 507 and a stop loss of Rs 479

Titan Industries Ltd BSE -0.91 % is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 255 and a stop loss of Rs 265.50

MUMBAI:
Retail investors' bullish bets on select mid- and small-cap counters have backfired as many of the stocks they invested during the December quarter have fallen by 10-70% so far this year. Worse still, much of the money was raised by these investors after pruning their holdings in bluechip stocks, most of which have risen this year.

The number of retail shareholders has risen in companies like Kingfisher Airlines, Opto CircuitsBSE 2.41 %, Zylog SystemsBSE 4.98 %, Tulip TelecomBSE -2.36 %, Glodyne TechnoserveBSE 2.48 %, GTL InfrastructureBSE 0.93 %, GeodesicBSE 3.73 % and Pradip OverseasBSE 1.16 % during October-December from the preceding quarter. On the other hand, retail holding has declined in large-caps like RILBSE 2.03 %, Axis BankBSE 0.42 % and State Bank of IndiaBSE 0.13 %.

Opto Circuit, which declined 17% during the December quarter, attracted over 9,953 small investors. However, the stock plunged a further 44% since the beginning of the year.

Kingfisher AirlinesBSE 4.94 % added 16,857 new retail investors but its share price has declined by almost 35% this year.

The same story has played out in counters like Arshiya InternationalBSE 2.73 % and Commercial Engineers & Body Builders, whose stock has lost more than half of its value since January. Small investors are bottom-fishing in these counters, hoping a news-driven event could turn their fortunes, said market experts.

"A majority of retail investors continued to stay away from the market while a few chased companies trading at a low price, without bothering to analyse why these counters had lost value," said Rahul Rege, business head - retail, Emkay Global Financial ServicesBSE -7.20 %.

Even on a sectoral basis, mid-caps and small-caps have lagged their larger peers. The BSE Midcap index has declined 7% this year and the BSE Small-cap index fell 11.37% against a 0.21% gain in the Sensex.

ETdata also reveals that retail shareholding in Nifty stocks fell to its lowest in the December 2012 quarter while FIIs shareholding in Nifty companies rose to an all-time high.

Infradebt, India's first infrastructure debt fund (IDF) is set to kick-start its formal operations. Finance minister P Chidambaram on Tuesday handed over the license to the fund's promoters including ICICI Bank, Bank of Baroda, Citibank and Life Insurance Corporate of India.

"The infra debt fund has equity capital of Rs 300 crore," Chanda Kochhar, managing director, ICICI Bank   told reporters in New Delhi.

"The non-banking financial company (NBFC) includes independent management with LIC, Bank of Baroda, ICICI Bank and Citibank among the major participants. The infra debt fund projects can finance projects up to Rs 200 crore," she said.

ICICI Bank (together with a wholly-owned subsidiary) is the largest shareholder in Infradebt with 31 percent stake holding followed by Bank of Baroda  at 30 percent, Citibank at 29 percent and LIC at 10 percent.

Earlier, Pranab Mukherjee, the then finance minister had announced the setting up of IDFs in his budget speech for the year 2011-2012. The objective was to facilitate the flow of long-term debt into infrastructure projects.

Most of the infrastructure projects are facing fund crunch. Banks drag their feet in lending to long term projects out of the fear of asset-liability mismatch. While more than half of total deposits in the banking industry are with less than one year maturity, infrastructure projects generally keep banks' money blocked for 7-10 years.

"The IDF will be set up either as a trust or as a company. A trust based IDF would normally be a mutual fund (MF) while a company based IDF would normally be a NBFC. IDF - NBFC would raise resources through issue of either rupee or dollar denominated bonds of minimum 5 year maturity," RBI had said in a notification issued on November 21, 2011.

Speaking on this occasion, Chidambaram emphasized the need to meet the financing requirements of the infrastructural deficit. Infrastructure spending in the 12th five year plan is projected at USD 1 trillion against about USD 500 billion in the 11th five year plan. The share of private investment in the total investment in infrastructure has increased significantly from 22 percent in the 10th  Plan to 38 percent in the 11th Plan and is projected at 47 percent during the 12th Plan.

"Infradebt would seek to raise debt capital from domestic as well as foreign resources and would invest in infrastructure projects under the Public-Private Partnership model that have completed one year of operations. Infradebt will expand and diversify the domestic and international sources of debt funding to meet the large financing needs of the infrastructure sector," said the press release issued by ICICI Bank.

NEW DELHI: The Indian markets are expected to trade in a narrow band in the coming week as technical indicators on daily and weekly charts are showing negative signs, indicating the weakness to continue for a while.

The 50-share Nifty index has corrected 0.3 per cent even after receiving record flows of Rs 7-8 billion so far in the year 2013. However, the domestic institutional investors (DII) have been major sellers in the market and that's why the markets have largely remained range-bound.

"We have seen huge money going out from domestic investors and we had one of the best months in January as far as FII inflow is concerned, but we have seen unabated domestic selling and that is the primary reason the market has gone down," said Vijai Mantri , MD & CEO, Pramerica Mutual Fund in an interview with ET Now.

"But domestic liquidity is matching FII liquidity and that is the reason that the market has not seen any movement and we have seen difficult sessions," he added.

The Nifty, after breaching its major support line at 5950 levels, has been heading lower to test the lower targets placed at 5820-5600 levels. Technical indicators on daily and weekly charts are negative, indicating the weakness to continue for a while.

"The Nifty index has made a series of lower tops lower bottoms since the past three weeks witnessing for a corrective move. A breach below the 5820 levels on the Nifty spot will drag the index to test 5600 levels which is the ideal target that one should be looking for," said Sujit Deodhar, Head-Technical Analyst, Wellworth Share & Stock Broking.

"On higher side 5980-6000 levels will act as a major resistance and stop loss for the current down move," he added.

We have compiled a list of ten stocks which are likely to face selling pressure in the coming week:


1-Coal India:
This stock is trading in a downward channel on daily charts. The higher end of channel is placed at Rs 355 levels which will act as stiff resistance and where the 50 and 100-DMA is placed. The lower of the channel is placed at 330 levels which will act as a target in the current scenario.

Shorts are recommended at current levels at Rs 348-350 for a downside target of Rs 330 and a stop loss to be placed just above Rs 356 levels.

2-Wipro:
This stock is facing strong resistance in the zone of Rs 410-420 levels as visible on weekly charts. Technical indicator such as Stochastic is in a 'sell' mode. So we recommend shorts in the range of Rs 400-407 for a downside target of Rs 380 and stop loss to be placed above Rs 415 levels.

3-Cairn India Ltd:
This stock has given a weak closing below its support level of Rs 309.Technical indicators on daily and weekly charts are negative, indicating further selling. So, one can 'sell' the stock on any rise towards Rs 309 levels for a downside target of Rs 295-290 levels in a week or so with protective stop loss above Rs 320 levels.

4-Dish TV Ltd:
This stock has formed a continuation of downward 'Flag' pattern which is bearish in nature. The stock has also breached its crucial level of Rs 71 where the 200 DMA is placed.

So we recommend selling the stock in the range of Rs 68-69 levels with stop loss placed above Rs 71 and downside target of Rs 63 in the coming week.

5-India Hotel Ltd:
This stock has broken out of its 'Head & Shoulder' pattern at Rs 61 levels on daily charts. Target for the said pattern is placed at Rs 54 levels. So selling the stock on any rise to Rs 61 levels would be a good idea.

A decent return of 10-12 per cent is expected in the coming week and stop loss here should be placed at Rs 63.50 levels.

Amit Samar, CMT, Chief Technical Analyst at K Trends

6-Polaris Financial Technology Ltd:
The stock is nearing 61.8 per cent (Rs128.45) retracement level of its previous fall from Rs143.7 to the low of Rs103.35. On Elliot wave count the stock seems to be completing an ABC pattern.

The custom moving average is placed at Rs131.3. All these indicate that prices are all set to correct lower towards Rs120.65 and Rs114. View needs a revision above Rs134.5.

Strategy should be to 'sell' the stock in the range of Rs127-128.5.

7-India Infoline Ltd:
  The stock found resistance at Rs 88 and started to fall in a downward sloping channel. The daily and weekly MACD are in a 'sell' mode providing strength to bears.

On the higher side resistance is placed at Rs83 - the higher end of the downward sloping channel. On the lower side, immediate support is placed at Rs73 and thereafter at Rs61.

The stock can be sold at levels around Rs 81-83 range for a target of Rs 61 with a stop placed at Rs89 on close basis.

8-Info Edge Ltd:
 The stock is trading in a downward sloping channel drawn from the October highs and its currently trading at the upper end of the downward sloping trend line. Also the stock is finding resistance at the 61.8 per cent retracement level at Rs 354.

On the down side the stock should trade lower at Rs 330 area in the short term. However, view needs revision on the breach of Rs365.

9-Mahindra& Mahindra Ltd: 
 After forming a double top pattern at Rs 975, the stock has fallen sharply to Rs 851 and is now retracing the entire fall. The golden ratio is placed at Rs 928 coupled with previous support area at Rs 926 which will now provide resistance to the bulls as per principle of polarity.

Hence, rallies near Rs 925-928 area should be sold for a move lower towards Rs 860/846. However, view needs a reassessment if the stock crosses Rs 956 on close basis.

10-Dabur Ltd:
The stock is finding resistance at the 78.6 per cent retracement level of the previous fall at Rs 135. The daily MACD is on the verge of giving a sell signal & weekly is already in sell mode.

Hence a weakening momentum coupled with Fibonacci resistance of 78.6 per cent is providing a case for a correction lower towards Rs120 in the short term. However, view needs a restatement on the break of Rs 138 on close basis.

NEW DELHI: Global rating agency Moody's today warned that India's widening trade deficit is "credit negative" for the country and also raises its vulnerability to global shocks.

At present, Moody's has a 'Baa3' (lowest investment grade) rating for India with a stable outlook and any downward revision from here could pull the country's credit rating into junk grade.

Commenting on the latest government data showing an increase in India's trade deficit to USD 20 billion as on January 31, Moody's said: "India's widening trade deficit is credit negative... These rising deficits are being financed by increased foreign-currency borrowing, raising India's vulnerability to international financial volatility."

The country's trade deficit in January stood at its second highest level, while the biggest ever gap of USD 21 billion was recorded in October, 2012.

"Wider trade deficits can also weaken the currency, raising domestic prices of imported commodities, further fuelling India's already high inflation rate," Atsi Sheth, Vice President - Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Investors Service said.

India's trade deficits averaged about USD 13.5 billion a month in 2011 and USD 16 billion a month in 2012, up from an average of USD 9.5 billion a month between 2008 and 2010.

Moody's said the three main factors responsible for widening trade deficit over the past two years include slowing global growth that has lowered demand for Indian exports, rising prices of oil and gold that account for a bulk of the country's merchandise imports, and a loose fiscal policy which stimulates domestic demand, and thus demand for imports.

Loose fiscal policy also fuels domestic inflation, which erodes the competitiveness of both export and import-competing sectors, further widening the trade gap.

"Trends in the first two factors are unlikely to turn significantly benign in 2013. Therefore, an improvement in India's trade balance will require a shift to policies to enhance domestic competitiveness," Moody's Sovereign Risk Group Associate Analyst Andrew Schneider said.

Since foreign-currency debt plays a larger role than foreign investment in financing India's trade deficit, the external debt burden has risen to USD 365 billion as of third-quarter 2012 from USD 137 billion in third-quarter of 2006.

"Should the current trend of more rapid growth in debt and import payments than export earnings and non-debt inflows persist, these ratios, and thus India's vulnerability to external shocks, will deteriorate significantly," the rating agency said.

MUMBAI: Led by state-run energy major ONGC, the combined market capitalisation of top-five Sensex companies rose by Rs 23,590 crore last week.

In an overall flat stock market, five blue-chip companies saw rise in their market value, including TCS, ONGCBSE 0.05 % and Coal IndiaBSE -0.38 %.

On the other hand, the list of losers consists RILBSE -1.20 %, ITC, Infosys, SBIBSE 0.85 % and ICICI BankBSE -0.04 % whose cumulative losses stood at Rs 12,170 crore.

The BSE benchmark Sensex fell by 16.62 points to end the week at 19,468.15.

The market cap of ONGC, the biggest gainer among the top- 10 companies, soared by Rs 7,144 crore to Rs 2,75,315 crore.

Coal India's value moved up by Rs 6,632 crore to Rs 2,20,851 crore, while HDFC BankBSE -0.01 % added Rs 5,974 crore to Rs 1,59,988 crore.

The m-cap of TCS BSE -0.41 % surged Rs 3,494 crore to Rs 2,82,055 crore, while that of HDFC rose by Rs 346 crore to Rs 1,24,736 crore.

In contrast, RIL's value plunged Rs 6,261 crore to Rs 2,73,353 crore, while the m-cap of SBI tanked by Rs 3,566 crore to Rs 1,49,861 crore.

ITC BSE 0.07 % lost Rs 1,301 crore from its market value which was Rs 2,36,461 crore, while ICICI Bank's m-cap declined by Rs 767 crore to Rs 1,29,580 crore.

The market value of InfosysBSE -0.99 % dipped by Rs 275 crore to Rs 1,59,936 crore.

The list of top-10 companies by m-cap for the week ended Friday was led by TCS, followed by ONGC, RIL, ITC, CILBSE -0.38 %, HDFC Bank, Infosys, SBI, ICICI Bank and HDFC.

On Thursday, TCS had surpassed Reliance IndustriesBSE -1.20 % to become the country's most valued company.

Market capitalisation of a listed company corresponds to the cumulative market price of all its shares. This figure changes daily with the change in the stock price.

• December IIP at -0.6% v/s -0.8% (revised) in Nov 2012
• January CPI accelerates to 10.79%
• Exports up 0.8%, imports rise 6% in Jan 
• Inflation for January at 6.62% vs 7.18% in December
• Domestic car sales decline 12.45%, bike sales up 7.45% in Jan 
• SBI posts 8% rise in consolidated Q3 net profit (YoY)
  
  Indian indices:
  The Indian equities remained unpredictable throughout the week, the Sensex slipped 0.08% and Nifty was down by 0.27% in the 7th trading week of 2013. Profit booking was witnessed throughout the week, which kept the sentiments bearish. Investors booked profits across the board shrugging off positive cues like ease in inflation numbers and declined for the third consecutive week. The Indian markets ended the week marginally lower reflecting the negative sentiments; markets fell in three out of the five trading sessions of the week.
  
  Adding further, the global credit rating agency Moody's Investor Service warned that India's expanding current account deficit and external debt will make the country more vulnerable to international financial volatility and have negative implications for its sovereign credit profile.
  
  The BSE Sensex declined 16.62 points or 0.08% to settle at 19,468.15 while NSE Nifty dropped 16.10 points or 0.27% to settle at 5,887.40 in the week ended February 15, 2013.
  
  Weekly market trend from February 11 - February 15, 2013
• Indian shares marked their longest losing streak since May 2011 on February 11, 2013 for an eighth consecutive session as ONGC retreated ahead of its quarterly results, while financial stocks fell on concerns about slowing economic growth at a time of sticky inflation. Domestic passenger car sales declined by 12.45% to 1,73,420 units in January this year compared to 1,98,079 units in the same month of 2012. The Sensex closed at 19460.57, down by 24.20 points and the Nifty fell by 5.65 points to settle at 5897.85 in trade today.
• On February 12, 2013 the markets ended a volatile trading day in the green zone after losing for eight consecutive sessions, ignoring weak December IIP data, backed by gains in oil and gas stocks. India's industrial production fell to an unexpected -0.6% in December from a year earlier weighed down by manufacturing, government data showed on Tuesday (February 12, 2013). Also, India's annual consumer price inflation accelerated to 10.79% in January from the previous month, government data showed. The Sensex rose 100.47 points to close at 19561.04, while the Nifty advanced 24.65 points higher to settle at 5922.50.
• The Indian stocks gained for second straight session on February 13, 2013 and shut shop in the green terrain. India's exports rose an annual 0.8% in January and imports for the month rose 6%, leaving a trade deficit of $20 billion. The Sensex rose 47.04 points to close at 19608.08, while the Nifty advanced 10.45 points higher to settle at 5932.95.
• On February 14, 2013 the key indices ended lower, shrugging off better-than-expected Jan WPI, amid profit booking in auto, financials and telecom stocks. The headline inflation rate moderated to its lowest level in more than three years at 6.62% in January, helped by a slower rise in fuel and manufactured goods prices. Key benchmarks edged lower after State Bank of India, country's biggest lender, posted weaker-than-expected third quarter net profit and rise in bad loans exacerbating growth concerns The Sensex closed at 19497.18, down by 110.90 points and the Nifty fell by 36 points to settle at 5896.95 in trade today.
• The Indian markets closed in the red zone on February 15, 2013 as the equities traded on a subdued note led by selling pressure across the board. Benchmark share indices witnessed another weak trading session amid volatility in Oil&Gas and IT shares. The broader markets ended mixed. The Sensex closed at 19468.15, down by 29.03 points and the Nifty fell 9.55 points to settle at 5887.40 in trade today.

Looking at the 'A' group stocks, the top three gainers of the week were Pidilite Industries which was up by 8.91%, Emami rose 6.74% and Jet Airways up by 6.01%. The top three losers of the week were Suzlon Energy down by 14.90%, Unitech down by 14.75% and Opto Circuits down by 13.03%.

FII/MF activity:
The foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were the net buyers of the Indian stocks worth a net of Rs2320 crore during the week till February 14, 2013; the domestic investors were also the net buyers of Indian stocks to the tune of Rs18.7 crore during the week till February 14, 2013.

he broader market has been in a slump despite all the good policy talk from the government. The bulls have taken it on the chin and the bears have been on a prowl.

This is evident from the fact that the BSE Midcap and Small Cap indices have now lost 10.9 per cent and 15.4 per cent, respectively, from their respective 52-week highs.

Last week banking heavyweight State Bank of IndiaBSE 0.85 % ( SBIBSE 0.85 %) declared Q3 results, which came below expectations, and as a result the joy of lower-than-expected inflation was short-lived.

Tata SteelBSE -1.21 % and Tata MotorsBSE 2.48 % too failed to meet the street estimates. Overall, the bears have made good money in the Valentine's week and continue to say, give us red.

Technically speaking, the market outlook continues to be bleak. During the last week the Nifty made a feeble attempt to cross the 20-Day moving average placed at 5970, but failed to do so. This added to the confidence of those who were short and stocks like L&T, Siemens and Cairn IndiaBSE -2.61 % plummeted to new 4-month lows.

The momentum oscillators on the daily chart of the Nifty are near to oversold zone, but those on the weekly chart have given fresh 'sell' indications. This would mean that any bounce in the market near to the 5950 - 5970 range would ideally attract significant selling pressure.

Traders can use this bounce to buy put options or to create fresh shorts on the Nifty futures. The stop loss for all short positions should now be revised from 6120 to 6040. We continue to expect further downside towards the 5700 mark on the Nifty.

On the stock front, traders with a 4 to 6-week perspective should keep a tab on Yes BankBSE 0.12 % and United Spirits. Both charts indicate that a top may be in place and a decline is on the cards.

Traders can sell Yes bank in the range of Rs 510 to Rs 515. Place a stop loss at Rs 527 and trade bearish for a target of Rs 475 in the coming weeks. In case of United SpiritsBSE 0.40 %, sell the stock in the range of Rs 1930 to Rs 1940, place a stop loss at Rs 1980 and expect a fall towards the Rs 1740 mark over the next 4 to 6 weeks.

The rupee has been kind to us and has moved in line with our expectations mentioned in the previous article. A depreciation of 1.4 per cent last week and a closing at the level of 54.3 (Spot level) is encouraging.

Considering how the chart has panned out over the last week, we revise our estimates. Going forward, we expect the rupee to depreciate further and cross 55.35 in less than 14 trading sessions. This move would be bullish for IT counters, but bearish for the overall equity market.