Do you think the market is very nervous stepping into the all important event day?
Yes, the markets are nervous and so does most of the government functioning look like. The Finance Minister has talked about the fact that you need to judge me by the budget that I present this time. So it is going to be an extremely challenging task as it comes against the backdrop which has not been in India for quite some time, which is the worst GDP growth that you are seeing in the last decade or so amongst the highest inflationary environment that you are looking at. Also interest rates and the worsening local environment in terms of capital raising and so on.
So it would be worth watching what really happens. The big difference which I would look at right now is that the finance ministry has done quite a bit in precursor to the budget which ideally has been steps announced during the budget. So if we look at the fuel price hike, gold import duty, FDI, new banking licences and so on, lots of the bullets from the budget itself have been released prior to the budget.
So in that sense, expectations from this budget will just be more driven by articulation of views about how does one really achieve the fiscal deficit roadmap and how does one really propel the infra growth from here on to drive consumption.
You are sounding a bit more bearish than what I usually hear you speak. Just wondering if he does not bring any surprise on the fisc deficit front, let us stay it sticks to 5.3, 5.2, and 4.8 odd, just looking at the current environment globally and locally, do you think we would be headed for lower levels over the next couple of months, two or three months?
I totally agree. It was till the last one year when India was amongst the better performing markets. You had a fair bit of uncertainty around what would happen in the country and that was overpricing risk at that stage at that time. Right now the markets are possibly at the verge of under pricing the risk, not disproportionately.
But to some extent, the budget at best will just be an articulation of views about how to really map in the fiscal as also try and get some growth back in the system. I cannot really see too much of options available. So if one looks at increasing tax collection which is basically broadening of tax net or removal of certain exemption and concessions to ensure that one gets closer to the GST implementation as we move forward, they really are not very big steps which the budget is really expected to throw up.
We have done perfectly well in terms of ensuring divestments which were non-starters literally a couple of quarters back. So the markets will obviously cheer the budget over the next few days or so, but beyond that it will really be dependent upon whether one really starts to see visible growth from here on. And if that visible growth is there, one will start to really put in a lot more weight on that rather than look at what the budget really does now.
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